Trader consensus favors 1250 or more US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 per Storm Prediction Center data—surpassing typical January-March totals amid major March outbreaks (e.g., 106 tornadoes March 10-12) and the April 13 severe weather event producing 14 tornadoes across Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. This front-loaded activity, fueled by persistent strong upper-level troughs and warmer-than-average conditions in the Plains and Midwest, contrasts with historical annual averages of about 1,225 from the National Centers for Environmental Information. ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA) support average-to-elevated severe weather risk into peak spring months, though forecasts like AccuWeather's 1,050-1,250 range introduce uncertainty; watch SPC Day 1-3 outlooks for evolving patterns that could sustain or suppress totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
1250+ 36%
1000–1049 20.7%
1150–1199 8.8%
<950 7%
$64,519 Vol.
$64,519 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
7%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
21%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
9%
1200–1249
11%
1250+
36%
1250+ 36%
1000–1049 20.7%
1150–1199 8.8%
<950 7%
$64,519 Vol.
$64,519 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
$21,622 Vol.
7%
950–999
$2,049 Vol.
4%
1000–1049
$1,534 Vol.
21%
1050–1099
$7,106 Vol.
5%
1100–1149
$1,375 Vol.
4%
1150–1199
$1,708 Vol.
9%
1200–1249
$14,432 Vol.
11%
1250+
$14,692 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 1250 or more US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 per Storm Prediction Center data—surpassing typical January-March totals amid major March outbreaks (e.g., 106 tornadoes March 10-12) and the April 13 severe weather event producing 14 tornadoes across Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. This front-loaded activity, fueled by persistent strong upper-level troughs and warmer-than-average conditions in the Plains and Midwest, contrasts with historical annual averages of about 1,225 from the National Centers for Environmental Information. ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA) support average-to-elevated severe weather risk into peak spring months, though forecasts like AccuWeather's 1,050-1,250 range introduce uncertainty; watch SPC Day 1-3 outlooks for evolving patterns that could sustain or suppress totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$64,519Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 1250 or more US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 per Storm Prediction Center data—surpassing typical January-March totals amid major March outbreaks (e.g., 106 tornadoes March 10-12) and the April 13 severe weather event producing 14 tornadoes across Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. This front-loaded activity, fueled by persistent strong upper-level troughs and warmer-than-average conditions in the Plains and Midwest, contrasts with historical annual averages of about 1,225 from the National Centers for Environmental Information. ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA) support average-to-elevated severe weather risk into peak spring months, though forecasts like AccuWeather's 1,050-1,250 range introduce uncertainty; watch SPC Day 1-3 outlooks for evolving patterns that could sustain or suppress totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$64,519Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 1250 or more US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by an above-average early-season pace with 311 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April 15 per Storm Prediction Center data—surpassing typical January-March totals amid major March outbreaks (e.g., 106 tornadoes March 10-12) and the April 13 severe weather event producing 14 tornadoes across Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. This front-loaded activity, fueled by persistent strong upper-level troughs and warmer-than-average conditions in the Plains and Midwest, contrasts with historical annual averages of about 1,225 from the National Centers for Environmental Information. ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA) support average-to-elevated severe weather risk into peak spring months, though forecasts like AccuWeather's 1,050-1,250 range introduce uncertainty; watch SPC Day 1-3 outlooks for evolving patterns that could sustain or suppress totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes