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Política·Tweet Markets

¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Tweet Markets

¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 7

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 7

<5 38%

10-14 35%

5-9 34%

20-24 32%

Polymarket
NEW

<5 38%

10-14 35%

5-9 34%

20-24 32%

Polymarket
NEW

<5

$20 Vol.

38%

5-9

$0 Vol.

34%

10-14

$0 Vol.

35%

15-19

$0 Vol.

28%

20-24

$0 Vol.

32%

25-29

$0 Vol.

28%

30-34

$0 Vol.

30%

35-39

$20 Vol.

24%

40-44

$20 Vol.

26%

45-49

$20 Vol.

24%

50-54

$20 Vol.

24%

55-59

$20 Vol.

24%

60+

$21 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 31, 12:00 PM ET and April 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, the @khamenei_ir account—now honoring the "martyred Leader"—has posted archival statements at a steady low rate of 2-4 per week, including three in the March 20-27 period amid US-Israel-Iran airstrikes and retaliations. This irregularity, driven by regime staff amid leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, keeps trader consensus tight across <5 (36%), 10-14 (35.5%), and 5-9 (34.5%), reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on continuation versus event-triggered bursts like recent Resistance force quotes. Escalation in military actions, ceasefire talks, or successor health updates could widen spreads by boosting or curbing output.

Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, the @khamenei_ir account—now honoring the "martyred Leader"—has posted archival statements at a steady low rate of 2-4 per week, including three in the March 20-27 period amid US-Israel-Iran airstrikes and retaliations. This irregularity, driven by regime staff amid leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, keeps trader consensus tight across <5 (36%), 10-14 (35.5%), and 5-9 (34.5%), reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on continuation versus event-triggered bursts like recent Resistance force quotes. Escalation in military actions, ceasefire talks, or successor health updates could widen spreads by boosting or curbing output.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 31, 12:00 PM ET and April 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, the @khamenei_ir account—now honoring the "martyred Leader"—has posted archival statements at a steady low rate of 2-4 per week, including three in the March 20-27 period amid US-Israel-Iran airstrikes and retaliations. This irregularity, driven by regime staff amid leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, keeps trader consensus tight across <5 (36%), 10-14 (35.5%), and 5-9 (34.5%), reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on continuation versus event-triggered bursts like recent Resistance force quotes. Escalation in military actions, ceasefire talks, or successor health updates could widen spreads by boosting or curbing output.

Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in an Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, the @khamenei_ir account—now honoring the "martyred Leader"—has posted archival statements at a steady low rate of 2-4 per week, including three in the March 20-27 period amid US-Israel-Iran airstrikes and retaliations. This irregularity, driven by regime staff amid leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, keeps trader consensus tight across <5 (36%), 10-14 (35.5%), and 5-9 (34.5%), reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on continuation versus event-triggered bursts like recent Resistance force quotes. Escalation in military actions, ceasefire talks, or successor health updates could widen spreads by boosting or curbing output.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "<5" con 38%, seguido de "10-14" con 35%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 38¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 28, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?" es "<5" con 38%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 38% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "10-14" con 35%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Khamenei # publica del 31 de marzo al 7 de abril de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.