Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1983, faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Kaptur’s narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes and the district’s long Democratic tilt underpin trader preference for the Democratic outcome, even after Republican-led mid-decade redistricting shifted the map toward greater GOP competitiveness based on 2024 presidential results. Merrin’s May 2026 primary win cleared the Republican field, but mixed nonpartisan ratings—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic—reflect Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. No major late developments have altered the race since the primary, leaving the current implied probabilities anchored in these structural and historical factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara OH-09
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara OH-09
$25,263 Vol.
$25,263 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
65%
Partido Republicano
36%
$25,263 Vol.
$25,263 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$2,146 Vol.
65%
Partido Republicano
$23,118 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1983, faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Kaptur’s narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes and the district’s long Democratic tilt underpin trader preference for the Democratic outcome, even after Republican-led mid-decade redistricting shifted the map toward greater GOP competitiveness based on 2024 presidential results. Merrin’s May 2026 primary win cleared the Republican field, but mixed nonpartisan ratings—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic—reflect Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. No major late developments have altered the race since the primary, leaving the current implied probabilities anchored in these structural and historical factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$25,263Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1983, faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Kaptur’s narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes and the district’s long Democratic tilt underpin trader preference for the Democratic outcome, even after Republican-led mid-decade redistricting shifted the map toward greater GOP competitiveness based on 2024 presidential results. Merrin’s May 2026 primary win cleared the Republican field, but mixed nonpartisan ratings—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic—reflect Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. No major late developments have altered the race since the primary, leaving the current implied probabilities anchored in these structural and historical factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$25,263Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1983, faces Republican nominee Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Kaptur’s narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes and the district’s long Democratic tilt underpin trader preference for the Democratic outcome, even after Republican-led mid-decade redistricting shifted the map toward greater GOP competitiveness based on 2024 presidential results. Merrin’s May 2026 primary win cleared the Republican field, but mixed nonpartisan ratings—ranging from toss-up to lean Democratic—reflect Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. No major late developments have altered the race since the primary, leaving the current implied probabilities anchored in these structural and historical factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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