Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a substantial edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District due to her decades-long record of outperforming the district’s partisan baseline, including a narrow 2024 victory over the same Republican nominee. Redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the map toward Republicans, producing a simulated 2024 presidential result of roughly Trump +11, yet Kaptur’s established local organization, higher fundraising totals, and consistent cross-aisle appeal continue to anchor her position ahead of the November general election. Derek Merrin secured the GOP nomination in May and received an endorsement from President Trump, but the race remains rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters, reflecting uncertainty over whether the map change will overcome Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in the final weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$33,665 Vol.
$33,665 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Marcy Kaptur (D)
74%
Derek Merrin (R)
26%
$33,665 Vol.
$33,665 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Marcy Kaptur (D)
$6,989 Vol.
74%
Derek Merrin (R)
$26,676 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a substantial edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District due to her decades-long record of outperforming the district’s partisan baseline, including a narrow 2024 victory over the same Republican nominee. Redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the map toward Republicans, producing a simulated 2024 presidential result of roughly Trump +11, yet Kaptur’s established local organization, higher fundraising totals, and consistent cross-aisle appeal continue to anchor her position ahead of the November general election. Derek Merrin secured the GOP nomination in May and received an endorsement from President Trump, but the race remains rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters, reflecting uncertainty over whether the map change will overcome Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$33,665Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a substantial edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District due to her decades-long record of outperforming the district’s partisan baseline, including a narrow 2024 victory over the same Republican nominee. Redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the map toward Republicans, producing a simulated 2024 presidential result of roughly Trump +11, yet Kaptur’s established local organization, higher fundraising totals, and consistent cross-aisle appeal continue to anchor her position ahead of the November general election. Derek Merrin secured the GOP nomination in May and received an endorsement from President Trump, but the race remains rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters, reflecting uncertainty over whether the map change will overcome Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,665Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a substantial edge in trader pricing for Ohio’s 9th District due to her decades-long record of outperforming the district’s partisan baseline, including a narrow 2024 victory over the same Republican nominee. Redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the map toward Republicans, producing a simulated 2024 presidential result of roughly Trump +11, yet Kaptur’s established local organization, higher fundraising totals, and consistent cross-aisle appeal continue to anchor her position ahead of the November general election. Derek Merrin secured the GOP nomination in May and received an endorsement from President Trump, but the race remains rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters, reflecting uncertainty over whether the map change will overcome Kaptur’s incumbency advantages in the final weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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