South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody at the Seoul Detention Center following multiple convictions tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration. A February 2026 Seoul Central District Court ruling imposed a life sentence for insurrection, while earlier proceedings produced a five-year term for obstructing arrest; the Supreme Court upheld a seven-year sentence on related charges in July 2026. Additional trials continue on separate allegations, and appeals processes for these cases typically extend well beyond a single calendar year. With no granted bail, parole eligibility, or presidential pardon announced and structural barriers including ongoing litigation, traders assess a low likelihood of release before 2027, consistent with the 90% implied probability on “No.”