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Elections·Bulgaria

Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner

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Elections·Bulgaria

Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner

PB 99.0%

GERB–SDS <1%

PP–DB <1%

DPS <1%

Polymarket

$214,949 Vol.

PB 99.0%

GERB–SDS <1%

PP–DB <1%

DPS <1%

Polymarket

$214,949 Vol.

Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

PB

$75,843 Vol.

99%

Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

GERB–SDS

$33,863 Vol.

<1%

Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

PP–DB

$34,171 Vol.

<1%

Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

DPS

$4,252 Vol.

<1%

Will There Is Such a People (ITN) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

ITN

$11,889 Vol.

<1%

Will Velichie win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

Velichie

$15,738 Vol.

<1%

Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

APS

$11,608 Vol.

<1%

Will BSP – United Left win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

BSP-United Left

$7,898 Vol.

<1%

Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECH) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

MECH

$10,144 Vol.

<1%

Will Vazrazhdane win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? icon

Vazrazhdane

$9,543 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 99% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by dominant recent polls showing 30-33% support—double that of GERB–SDS at 18-21%. Radev's new alliance has surged amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, capitalizing on anti-corruption pledges and rural appeal following the Zhelyazkov government's December collapse and widespread protests. Polls like Market Links (April 16) and CAM (April 3-14) project PB winning 85-95 seats under proportional representation, far exceeding the 121-seat majority threshold in the 240-seat National Assembly. Realistic challenges include a late polling shift from higher turnout among opponents or unforeseen scandals, though consistent trends suggest stability.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$214,949
End Date
Apr 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 99% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by dominant recent polls showing 30-33% support—double that of GERB–SDS at 18-21%. Radev's new alliance has surged amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, capitalizing on anti-corruption pledges and rural appeal following the Zhelyazkov government's December collapse and widespread protests. Polls like Market Links (April 16) and CAM (April 3-14) project PB winning 85-95 seats under proportional representation, far exceeding the 121-seat majority threshold in the 240-seat National Assembly. Realistic challenges include a late polling shift from higher turnout among opponents or unforeseen scandals, though consistent trends suggest stability.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$214,949
End Date
Apr 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).

Related

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Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

96%
Market icon

Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

80%
Market icon

Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

49%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "PB" at 99%, followed by "GERB–SDS" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $214.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner" is "PB" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "GERB–SDS" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bulgaria Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.