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Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

icon for Dublin-Central By-Election Winner
Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 74%

Janice Boylan 17.4%

Gerry Hutch 4.1%

Ray McAdam 2.7%

Polymarket

$1,022,435 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 74%

Janice Boylan 17.4%

Gerry Hutch 4.1%

Ray McAdam 2.7%

Polymarket

$1,022,435 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$19,888 Vol.

74%

Janice Boylan

$11,177 Vol.

17%

Gerry Hutch

$497,416 Vol.

4%

Ray McAdam

$28,109 Vol.

3%

Gillian Sherratt

$179,636 Vol.

1%

Malachy Steenson

$18,253 Vol.

1%

Janet Horner

$8,225 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$10,969 Vol.

1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$41,878 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$5,921 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$151,888 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$49,077 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile in a left-leaning four-seat constituency where his party colleague Gary Gannon secured a seat in 2024, positioning him to capture the vacated Fine Gael position amid government vulnerabilities in by-elections. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 17.4% as a long-time councillor and 2024 running mate to leader Mary Lou McDonald, facing a test of party strength despite high expectations in McDonald's heartland. Independent Gerry Hutch's recent confirmation at 4.1% reflects his near-miss in 2024 with over 3,000 first preferences, sustaining wildcard protest appeal. Recent constituency profiles from April 22-24 highlight Ennis's frontrunner status via positive doorsteps and social media, while left candidates urged transfer pacts and nominations close May 1, with transfers pivotal under PR-STV.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,022,435
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile in a left-leaning four-seat constituency where his party colleague Gary Gannon secured a seat in 2024, positioning him to capture the vacated Fine Gael position amid government vulnerabilities in by-elections. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 17.4% as a long-time councillor and 2024 running mate to leader Mary Lou McDonald, facing a test of party strength despite high expectations in McDonald's heartland. Independent Gerry Hutch's recent confirmation at 4.1% reflects his near-miss in 2024 with over 3,000 first preferences, sustaining wildcard protest appeal. Recent constituency profiles from April 22-24 highlight Ennis's frontrunner status via positive doorsteps and social media, while left candidates urged transfer pacts and nominations close May 1, with transfers pivotal under PR-STV.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,022,435
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 74%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Ennis" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.