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Politics·US Election

California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition

icon for California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
Politics·US Election

California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

Nov 3

66% chance
Polymarket
NEW
66% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 3 on the November 2026 ballot, which would make the existing high-income tax rates (10.3–12.3% on single filers above roughly $361,000) permanent rather than allowing them to expire in 2031. The measure, which qualified for the ballot in June 2026 after prior extensions via Proposition 30 (2012) and Proposition 55 (2016), directs the bulk of the $5–15 billion in annual revenue to K-12 schools and community colleges. Trader consensus at 71.5% for approval reflects the precedent of past voter support for maintaining these rates on the top 2% of earners, the absence of any rate increase, and the linkage to broadly supported education and healthcare funding amid limited organized opposition.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,224
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 3 on the November 2026 ballot, which would make the existing high-income tax rates (10.3–12.3% on single filers above roughly $361,000) permanent rather than allowing them to expire in 2031. The measure, which qualified for the ballot in June 2026 after prior extensions via Proposition 30 (2012) and Proposition 55 (2016), directs the bulk of the $5–15 billion in annual revenue to K-12 schools and community colleges. Trader consensus at 71.5% for approval reflects the precedent of past voter support for maintaining these rates on the top 2% of earners, the absence of any rate increase, and the linkage to broadly supported education and healthcare funding amid limited organized opposition.

Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,224
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 64% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 64¢, the market collectively assigns a 64% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition" is 64% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 64% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.