California Proposition 43, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, seeks to impose a two-thirds voter approval requirement on citizen-initiated local special tax measures while restricting certain charter-city real estate transfer taxes. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 64.5% reflects sustained opposition from local governments, public employee unions, and service advocates who argue the change would constrain revenue options for infrastructure and programs. The measure emerged from a June 2026 legislative deal that withdrew a competing initiative, yet polling trends and historical patterns on tax-limitation proposals indicate limited support for tightening initiative thresholds beyond existing rules for government-referred taxes. Key factors include fiscal impact estimates showing potential revenue losses and the absence of major endorsements or events shifting momentum ahead of the general election.