**Incumbent Democrat Lucy McBath faces Republican Kevin Martin in Georgia’s 6th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026.** The district’s strong Democratic lean—reflected in McBath’s 74.7% win in 2024 and a Cook Political Report Solid D rating—anchors trader expectations that Democrats will prevail, yet the spread across margin buckets (all near 36.5%) and Republican win shares shows uncertainty over the precise victory margin. Martin’s primary win and McBath’s uncontested Democratic primary left the race with limited new polling or high-profile developments since May 2026, keeping implied probabilities clustered rather than concentrated on any single outcome band. Low visibility in this suburban Atlanta seat, combined with the absence of major national or local catalysts in recent weeks, sustains the tight distribution among margin options. Upcoming factors that could widen spreads include fall campaign spending reports, candidate debates, national midterm polling shifts, or late endorsements that alter turnout models. Historical patterns in safe Democratic districts suggest margins can compress or expand sharply with modest changes in enthusiasm or third-party activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 70%+ 37%
Democrat 65-70% 37%
Democrat 60-65% 37%
Democrat 55-60% 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 70%+
37%
Democrat 65-70%
37%
Democrat 60-65%
37%
Democrat 55-60%
37%
Democrat 50-55%
37%
Democrat 45-50%
37%
Democrat 40-45%
37%
Democrat 30-40%
37%
Democrat 0-30%
37%
Republican Wins
37%
Democrat 70%+ 37%
Democrat 65-70% 37%
Democrat 60-65% 37%
Democrat 55-60% 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 70%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 65-70%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 30-40%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 0-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 GA-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Lucy McBath faces Republican Kevin Martin in Georgia’s 6th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026.** The district’s strong Democratic lean—reflected in McBath’s 74.7% win in 2024 and a Cook Political Report Solid D rating—anchors trader expectations that Democrats will prevail, yet the spread across margin buckets (all near 36.5%) and Republican win shares shows uncertainty over the precise victory margin.
Martin’s primary win and McBath’s uncontested Democratic primary left the race with limited new polling or high-profile developments since May 2026, keeping implied probabilities clustered rather than concentrated on any single outcome band. Low visibility in this suburban Atlanta seat, combined with the absence of major national or local catalysts in recent weeks, sustains the tight distribution among margin options.
Upcoming factors that could widen spreads include fall campaign spending reports, candidate debates, national midterm polling shifts, or late endorsements that alter turnout models. Historical patterns in safe Democratic districts suggest margins can compress or expand sharply with modest changes in enthusiasm or third-party activity.
The 2026 GA-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 GA-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Lucy McBath faces Republican Kevin Martin in Georgia’s 6th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026.** The district’s strong Democratic lean—reflected in McBath’s 74.7% win in 2024 and a Cook Political Report Solid D rating—anchors trader expectations that Democrats will prevail, yet the spread across margin buckets (all near 36.5%) and Republican win shares shows uncertainty over the precise victory margin.
Martin’s primary win and McBath’s uncontested Democratic primary left the race with limited new polling or high-profile developments since May 2026, keeping implied probabilities clustered rather than concentrated on any single outcome band. Low visibility in this suburban Atlanta seat, combined with the absence of major national or local catalysts in recent weeks, sustains the tight distribution among margin options.
Upcoming factors that could widen spreads include fall campaign spending reports, candidate debates, national midterm polling shifts, or late endorsements that alter turnout models. Historical patterns in safe Democratic districts suggest margins can compress or expand sharply with modest changes in enthusiasm or third-party activity.
The 2026 GA-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Democrat Lucy McBath faces Republican Kevin Martin in Georgia’s 6th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026.** The district’s strong Democratic lean—reflected in McBath’s 74.7% win in 2024 and a Cook Political Report Solid D rating—anchors trader expectations that Democrats will prevail, yet the spread across margin buckets (all near 36.5%) and Republican win shares shows uncertainty over the precise victory margin. Martin’s primary win and McBath’s uncontested Democratic primary left the race with limited new polling or high-profile developments since May 2026, keeping implied probabilities clustered rather than concentrated on any single outcome band. Low visibility in this suburban Atlanta seat, combined with the absence of major national or local catalysts in recent weeks, sustains the tight distribution among margin options. Upcoming factors that could widen spreads include fall campaign spending reports, candidate debates, national midterm polling shifts, or late endorsements that alter turnout models. Historical patterns in safe Democratic districts suggest margins can compress or expand sharply with modest changes in enthusiasm or third-party activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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