Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 currently total 23 as of late July, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the leading 20–23 and 24–27 market ranges near the center of recent tallies. Primary drivers include a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, and Danny Davis, reflecting generational turnover and decisions to forgo another term amid redistricting changes and institutional pressures. Broader patterns show slightly higher Republican departures overall, consistent with historical midterm cycles where the president's party faces elevated exit rates. Few major new Democratic announcements have surfaced in the past month, keeping trader consensus clustered in the low-to-mid 20s while leaving room for late-cycle filings before deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20–23 38.4%
24–27 27%
28–31 16%
32–35 10.8%
$34,931 Vol.
$34,931 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
38%
24–27
27%
28–31
16%
32–35
11%
36–39
6%
40+
7%
20–23 38.4%
24–27 27%
28–31 16%
32–35 10.8%
$34,931 Vol.
$34,931 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,244 Vol.
3%
20–23
$5,922 Vol.
38%
24–27
$4,545 Vol.
27%
28–31
$1,295 Vol.
16%
32–35
$3,958 Vol.
11%
36–39
$874 Vol.
6%
40+
$1,093 Vol.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 currently total 23 as of late July, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the leading 20–23 and 24–27 market ranges near the center of recent tallies. Primary drivers include a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, and Danny Davis, reflecting generational turnover and decisions to forgo another term amid redistricting changes and institutional pressures. Broader patterns show slightly higher Republican departures overall, consistent with historical midterm cycles where the president's party faces elevated exit rates. Few major new Democratic announcements have surfaced in the past month, keeping trader consensus clustered in the low-to-mid 20s while leaving room for late-cycle filings before deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$34,931End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 currently total 23 as of late July, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the leading 20–23 and 24–27 market ranges near the center of recent tallies. Primary drivers include a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, and Danny Davis, reflecting generational turnover and decisions to forgo another term amid redistricting changes and institutional pressures. Broader patterns show slightly higher Republican departures overall, consistent with historical midterm cycles where the president's party faces elevated exit rates. Few major new Democratic announcements have surfaced in the past month, keeping trader consensus clustered in the low-to-mid 20s while leaving room for late-cycle filings before deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$34,931End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 currently total 23 as of late July, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the leading 20–23 and 24–27 market ranges near the center of recent tallies. Primary drivers include a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, and Danny Davis, reflecting generational turnover and decisions to forgo another term amid redistricting changes and institutional pressures. Broader patterns show slightly higher Republican departures overall, consistent with historical midterm cycles where the president's party faces elevated exit rates. Few major new Democratic announcements have surfaced in the past month, keeping trader consensus clustered in the low-to-mid 20s while leaving room for late-cycle filings before deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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