Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 20?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 20?
24°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$184,256 Vol.
$184,256 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$184,256 Vol.
$184,256 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
20°C or below
$25,361 Vol.
No
21°C
$20,393 Vol.
No
22°C
$15,457 Vol.
No
23°C
$29,732 Vol.
No
24°C
$21,543 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$24,949 Vol.
No
26°C
$17,761 Vol.
No
27°C
$14,137 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,051 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,563 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$3,309 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$184,256End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$184,256End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on April 20, 2026, driven by real-time observational data from Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—and aligned China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a peak of 22–24°C under clear skies with light southerly winds and hazy conditions limiting further intensification. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles corroborated this, showing consensus highs near 24°C amid mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 20–22°C but sees occasional spikes to 25°C from variable ridging. Hourly observations confirmed an early-afternoon peak at 24°C (equivalent to 75°F), with temperatures now dropping into the evening (around 13–15°C). A late-day solar-driven surge or rare CMA measurement revision could challenge this, but upper-air stability and waning insolation make higher outcomes improbable. Official daily records from CMA expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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