Korea Meteorological Administration short-term forecasts and ensemble models project Busan's highest temperature on April 15 near 23°C, anchoring trader consensus at 35.5% implied probability for that outcome, with 22°C (24.5%) and 24°C (21.5%) close behind. This positioning reflects a recent warm spell, including a 25°C peak on April 13 amid a high-pressure ridge and southerly winds boosting daytime heating, contrasting cooler evenings around 15-16°C. Mid-April climatological averages hover at 19-21°C, but above-normal warmth persists due to reduced cloud cover and spring solar insolation. Inherent forecast uncertainty from model spread—some ensembles reach 25°C or higher—supports the 16.4% tail for 25°C+, with KMA's next 12Z update expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Busan on April 15?
Highest temperature in Busan on April 15?
23°C 33.1%
22°C 24%
25°C or higher 21.9%
24°C 21.7%
$17,911 Vol.
$17,911 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
24%
23°C
33%
24°C
22%
25°C or higher
22%
23°C 33.1%
22°C 24%
25°C or higher 21.9%
24°C 21.7%
$17,911 Vol.
$17,911 Vol.
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
24%
23°C
33%
24°C
22%
25°C or higher
22%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration short-term forecasts and ensemble models project Busan's highest temperature on April 15 near 23°C, anchoring trader consensus at 35.5% implied probability for that outcome, with 22°C (24.5%) and 24°C (21.5%) close behind. This positioning reflects a recent warm spell, including a 25°C peak on April 13 amid a high-pressure ridge and southerly winds boosting daytime heating, contrasting cooler evenings around 15-16°C. Mid-April climatological averages hover at 19-21°C, but above-normal warmth persists due to reduced cloud cover and spring solar insolation. Inherent forecast uncertainty from model spread—some ensembles reach 25°C or higher—supports the 16.4% tail for 25°C+, with KMA's next 12Z update expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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