Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which ensemble means project a daytime high near 33°C for Lagos on April 15 amid the late dry season's persistent heat, with sea surface temperatures around 29°C fueling humidity. The near-even split between 33°C (31.5%) and 34°C (31.0%) stems from variable sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes allow urban heat island effects to push 34°C in the megacity's core. NiMet's recent bulletins flag 30-35°C ranges over southern Nigeria, aligning with April climatology (average high 32°C), though patchy thundery clouds add 1-2°C swing potential. Official airport measurements will resolve tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on April 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 15?
33°C 32%
34°C 31%
32°C 22%
35°C 14%
NEW
$22,758 Vol.
NEW
$22,758 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
5%
32°C
22%
33°C
32%
34°C
31%
35°C
14%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 32%
34°C 31%
32°C 22%
35°C 14%
NEW
$22,758 Vol.
NEW
$22,758 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
27°C or below
$2,433 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,017 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,772 Vol.
1%
30°C
$7,668 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,341 Vol.
5%
32°C
$272 Vol.
22%
33°C
$226 Vol.
32%
34°C
$214 Vol.
31%
35°C
$231 Vol.
14%
36°C
$713 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$5,872 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which ensemble means project a daytime high near 33°C for Lagos on April 15 amid the late dry season's persistent heat, with sea surface temperatures around 29°C fueling humidity. The near-even split between 33°C (31.5%) and 34°C (31.0%) stems from variable sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes allow urban heat island effects to push 34°C in the megacity's core. NiMet's recent bulletins flag 30-35°C ranges over southern Nigeria, aligning with April climatology (average high 32°C), though patchy thundery clouds add 1-2°C swing potential. Official airport measurements will resolve tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volume
$22,758End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which ensemble means project a daytime high near 33°C for Lagos on April 15 amid the late dry season's persistent heat, with sea surface temperatures around 29°C fueling humidity. The near-even split between 33°C (31.5%) and 34°C (31.0%) stems from variable sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes allow urban heat island effects to push 34°C in the megacity's core. NiMet's recent bulletins flag 30-35°C ranges over southern Nigeria, aligning with April climatology (average high 32°C), though patchy thundery clouds add 1-2°C swing potential. Official airport measurements will resolve tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,758End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which ensemble means project a daytime high near 33°C for Lagos on April 15 amid the late dry season's persistent heat, with sea surface temperatures around 29°C fueling humidity. The near-even split between 33°C (31.5%) and 34°C (31.0%) stems from variable sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 32-33°C via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes allow urban heat island effects to push 34°C in the megacity's core. NiMet's recent bulletins flag 30-35°C ranges over southern Nigeria, aligning with April climatology (average high 32°C), though patchy thundery clouds add 1-2°C swing potential. Official airport measurements will resolve tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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