The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast issued April 14 projects a minimum temperature of 12°C in Tokyo on April 15 under cloudy skies turning to occasional rain, with a daytime high near 23°C, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices 14°C at 37.5% implied probability, followed by 15°C (20.3%) and 16°C (14.0%), reflecting uncertainty in overnight cloud persistence that could limit radiative cooling amid light winds and urban heat island effects. Mid-April climatology shows average lows around 11–12°C, with recent mild nights (13–15°C range) supporting higher outcomes over colder ones below 13°C (<6% combined). Key resolution hinges on official JMA observations from central Tokyo stations by early April 16; watch hourly updates for shifts in low-level moisture and frontal timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on April 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 15?
15°C 79.9%
14°C 40.0%
13°C 5.7%
12°C 4.8%
NEW
$47,873 Vol.
NEW
$47,873 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
5%
13°C
6%
14°C
40%
15°C
67%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
15°C 79.9%
14°C 40.0%
13°C 5.7%
12°C 4.8%
NEW
$47,873 Vol.
NEW
$47,873 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
10°C or below
$3,810 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,196 Vol.
2%
12°C
$1,885 Vol.
5%
13°C
$1,276 Vol.
6%
14°C
$1,816 Vol.
40%
15°C
$1,917 Vol.
67%
16°C
$2,988 Vol.
1%
17°C
$4,364 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast issued April 14 projects a minimum temperature of 12°C in Tokyo on April 15 under cloudy skies turning to occasional rain, with a daytime high near 23°C, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices 14°C at 37.5% implied probability, followed by 15°C (20.3%) and 16°C (14.0%), reflecting uncertainty in overnight cloud persistence that could limit radiative cooling amid light winds and urban heat island effects. Mid-April climatology shows average lows around 11–12°C, with recent mild nights (13–15°C range) supporting higher outcomes over colder ones below 13°C (<6% combined). Key resolution hinges on official JMA observations from central Tokyo stations by early April 16; watch hourly updates for shifts in low-level moisture and frontal timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$47,873End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast issued April 14 projects a minimum temperature of 12°C in Tokyo on April 15 under cloudy skies turning to occasional rain, with a daytime high near 23°C, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices 14°C at 37.5% implied probability, followed by 15°C (20.3%) and 16°C (14.0%), reflecting uncertainty in overnight cloud persistence that could limit radiative cooling amid light winds and urban heat island effects. Mid-April climatology shows average lows around 11–12°C, with recent mild nights (13–15°C range) supporting higher outcomes over colder ones below 13°C (<6% combined). Key resolution hinges on official JMA observations from central Tokyo stations by early April 16; watch hourly updates for shifts in low-level moisture and frontal timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47,873End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast issued April 14 projects a minimum temperature of 12°C in Tokyo on April 15 under cloudy skies turning to occasional rain, with a daytime high near 23°C, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices 14°C at 37.5% implied probability, followed by 15°C (20.3%) and 16°C (14.0%), reflecting uncertainty in overnight cloud persistence that could limit radiative cooling amid light winds and urban heat island effects. Mid-April climatology shows average lows around 11–12°C, with recent mild nights (13–15°C range) supporting higher outcomes over colder ones below 13°C (<6% combined). Key resolution hinges on official JMA observations from central Tokyo stations by early April 16; watch hourly updates for shifts in low-level moisture and frontal timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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