Trader consensus favors 19°C at 31% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 14, closely trailed by 18°C (24%) and 20°C (19%), mirroring the spread in latest GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts converging on 18-20°C amid persistent overcast skies and possible light sprinkles. Recent observations through April 12 show cooler-than-normal highs around 16-18°C with rain suppressing diurnal heating, but a warming trend this month—monthly mean already +1.8°C above the 15.7°C April norm—supports mid-teens to low-20s potential aligned with historical mid-April averages near 19°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal influences; sunnier breaks could push toward 20°C+, while thicker clouds cap at 18°C. New model runs from the National Meteorological Center are due within 24 hours, likely refining odds ahead of resolution via official Shanghai station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 14?
19°C 34%
18°C 26%
20°C 24%
17°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
7%
17°C
13%
18°C
27%
19°C
34%
20°C
22%
21°C
9%
22°C
7%
23°C or higher
2%
19°C 34%
18°C 26%
20°C 24%
17°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 14, 2026
13°C or below
$481 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$672 Vol.
3%
15°C
$38 Vol.
6%
16°C
$195 Vol.
7%
17°C
$90 Vol.
13%
18°C
$65 Vol.
27%
19°C
$53 Vol.
34%
20°C
$44 Vol.
22%
21°C
$67 Vol.
9%
22°C
$67 Vol.
7%
23°C or higher
$204 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 19°C at 31% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 14, closely trailed by 18°C (24%) and 20°C (19%), mirroring the spread in latest GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts converging on 18-20°C amid persistent overcast skies and possible light sprinkles. Recent observations through April 12 show cooler-than-normal highs around 16-18°C with rain suppressing diurnal heating, but a warming trend this month—monthly mean already +1.8°C above the 15.7°C April norm—supports mid-teens to low-20s potential aligned with historical mid-April averages near 19°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal influences; sunnier breaks could push toward 20°C+, while thicker clouds cap at 18°C. New model runs from the National Meteorological Center are due within 24 hours, likely refining odds ahead of resolution via official Shanghai station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volume
$1,912End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 19°C at 31% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 14, closely trailed by 18°C (24%) and 20°C (19%), mirroring the spread in latest GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts converging on 18-20°C amid persistent overcast skies and possible light sprinkles. Recent observations through April 12 show cooler-than-normal highs around 16-18°C with rain suppressing diurnal heating, but a warming trend this month—monthly mean already +1.8°C above the 15.7°C April norm—supports mid-teens to low-20s potential aligned with historical mid-April averages near 19°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal influences; sunnier breaks could push toward 20°C+, while thicker clouds cap at 18°C. New model runs from the National Meteorological Center are due within 24 hours, likely refining odds ahead of resolution via official Shanghai station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,912End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 19°C at 31% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 14, closely trailed by 18°C (24%) and 20°C (19%), mirroring the spread in latest GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration ensemble forecasts converging on 18-20°C amid persistent overcast skies and possible light sprinkles. Recent observations through April 12 show cooler-than-normal highs around 16-18°C with rain suppressing diurnal heating, but a warming trend this month—monthly mean already +1.8°C above the 15.7°C April norm—supports mid-teens to low-20s potential aligned with historical mid-April averages near 19°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal influences; sunnier breaks could push toward 20°C+, while thicker clouds cap at 18°C. New model runs from the National Meteorological Center are due within 24 hours, likely refining odds ahead of resolution via official Shanghai station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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