Trader consensus for Chengdu’s June 18 peak clusters tightly around 30–31 °C (combined ~57 % implied probability) because early-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin typically produce highs near the long-term average of 29–30 °C. Persistent high humidity and frequent afternoon convective clouds limit surface heating, while the official measurement at the urban station reflects these moderating effects. Recent model runs show only modest differences in solar exposure or timing of showers that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C either way, keeping adjacent bins competitive. Later in the month, drier subtropical air can push readings above 33 °C, but mid-June climatology and current basin moisture favor the narrower 29–31 °C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on June 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 18?
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$84,123 Vol.
$84,123 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$84,123 Vol.
$84,123 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
26°C or below
$5,180 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,824 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,265 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,357 Vol.
No
30°C
$32,204 Vol.
No
31°C
$10,405 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$7,765 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,989 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,814 Vol.
No
35°C
$637 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$1,684 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Chengdu’s June 18 peak clusters tightly around 30–31 °C (combined ~57 % implied probability) because early-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin typically produce highs near the long-term average of 29–30 °C. Persistent high humidity and frequent afternoon convective clouds limit surface heating, while the official measurement at the urban station reflects these moderating effects. Recent model runs show only modest differences in solar exposure or timing of showers that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C either way, keeping adjacent bins competitive. Later in the month, drier subtropical air can push readings above 33 °C, but mid-June climatology and current basin moisture favor the narrower 29–31 °C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$84,123End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Chengdu’s June 18 peak clusters tightly around 30–31 °C (combined ~57 % implied probability) because early-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin typically produce highs near the long-term average of 29–30 °C. Persistent high humidity and frequent afternoon convective clouds limit surface heating, while the official measurement at the urban station reflects these moderating effects. Recent model runs show only modest differences in solar exposure or timing of showers that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C either way, keeping adjacent bins competitive. Later in the month, drier subtropical air can push readings above 33 °C, but mid-June climatology and current basin moisture favor the narrower 29–31 °C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$84,123End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus for Chengdu’s June 18 peak clusters tightly around 30–31 °C (combined ~57 % implied probability) because early-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin typically produce highs near the long-term average of 29–30 °C. Persistent high humidity and frequent afternoon convective clouds limit surface heating, while the official measurement at the urban station reflects these moderating effects. Recent model runs show only modest differences in solar exposure or timing of showers that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C either way, keeping adjacent bins competitive. Later in the month, drier subtropical air can push readings above 33 °C, but mid-June climatology and current basin moisture favor the narrower 29–31 °C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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