Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature near 97–98°F in Houston on August 18 under sunny skies and a strengthening subtropical ridge that suppresses clouds and showers. This setup favors maximum solar heating during peak August climatology, when daily highs typically range from 93–96°F but can reach the upper 90s with light southerly flow and dew points near 75°F. Recent model runs show minimal variability, keeping the 96–99°F range as the dominant outcomes while limiting upside risk from 100°F or higher absent a stronger ridge or drier air mass. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily, with implied probabilities reflecting the narrow window before any late-day sea breeze or isolated convection develops.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 18?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 18?
96-97°F 49%
98-99°F 33%
94-95°F 10%
100-101°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
89°F or below
1%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
5%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
49%
98-99°F
33%
100-101°F
6%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 49%
98-99°F 33%
94-95°F 10%
100-101°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
89°F or below
$100 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$50 Vol.
4%
92-93°F
$39 Vol.
5%
94-95°F
$10 Vol.
10%
96-97°F
$152 Vol.
49%
98-99°F
$132 Vol.
33%
100-101°F
$156 Vol.
6%
102-103°F
$29 Vol.
4%
104-105°F
$105 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$90 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature near 97–98°F in Houston on August 18 under sunny skies and a strengthening subtropical ridge that suppresses clouds and showers. This setup favors maximum solar heating during peak August climatology, when daily highs typically range from 93–96°F but can reach the upper 90s with light southerly flow and dew points near 75°F. Recent model runs show minimal variability, keeping the 96–99°F range as the dominant outcomes while limiting upside risk from 100°F or higher absent a stronger ridge or drier air mass. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily, with implied probabilities reflecting the narrow window before any late-day sea breeze or isolated convection develops.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$878End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature near 97–98°F in Houston on August 18 under sunny skies and a strengthening subtropical ridge that suppresses clouds and showers. This setup favors maximum solar heating during peak August climatology, when daily highs typically range from 93–96°F but can reach the upper 90s with light southerly flow and dew points near 75°F. Recent model runs show minimal variability, keeping the 96–99°F range as the dominant outcomes while limiting upside risk from 100°F or higher absent a stronger ridge or drier air mass. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily, with implied probabilities reflecting the narrow window before any late-day sea breeze or isolated convection develops.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$878End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a peak temperature near 97–98°F in Houston on August 18 under sunny skies and a strengthening subtropical ridge that suppresses clouds and showers. This setup favors maximum solar heating during peak August climatology, when daily highs typically range from 93–96°F but can reach the upper 90s with light southerly flow and dew points near 75°F. Recent model runs show minimal variability, keeping the 96–99°F range as the dominant outcomes while limiting upside risk from 100°F or higher absent a stronger ridge or drier air mass. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily, with implied probabilities reflecting the narrow window before any late-day sea breeze or isolated convection develops.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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