Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin point to a high near 102–103°F on August 18 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, positioning the 100–103°F bins as the clear market leaders. This aligns with mid-August climatology, when the seasonal upper-level ridge typically supports daytime maxima around the 99°F average while allowing brief excursions into the low 100s. Minimal model spread and stable atmospheric conditions have kept implied probabilities concentrated in those ranges, with only modest risk priced for 104°F+ if the ridge strengthens slightly. Traders are monitoring the final model runs and evening observations for any late adjustments ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 18?
100-101°F 51%
102-103°F 34%
98-99°F 7%
104-105°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
93°F or below
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
7%
100-101°F
51%
102-103°F
34%
104-105°F
6%
106-107°F
2%
108-109°F
1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 51%
102-103°F 34%
98-99°F 7%
104-105°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
93°F or below
$50 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$44 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$299 Vol.
3%
98-99°F
$187 Vol.
7%
100-101°F
$242 Vol.
51%
102-103°F
$133 Vol.
34%
104-105°F
$15 Vol.
6%
106-107°F
$87 Vol.
2%
108-109°F
$185 Vol.
1%
110-111°F
$175 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin point to a high near 102–103°F on August 18 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, positioning the 100–103°F bins as the clear market leaders. This aligns with mid-August climatology, when the seasonal upper-level ridge typically supports daytime maxima around the 99°F average while allowing brief excursions into the low 100s. Minimal model spread and stable atmospheric conditions have kept implied probabilities concentrated in those ranges, with only modest risk priced for 104°F+ if the ridge strengthens slightly. Traders are monitoring the final model runs and evening observations for any late adjustments ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,602End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin point to a high near 102–103°F on August 18 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, positioning the 100–103°F bins as the clear market leaders. This aligns with mid-August climatology, when the seasonal upper-level ridge typically supports daytime maxima around the 99°F average while allowing brief excursions into the low 100s. Minimal model spread and stable atmospheric conditions have kept implied probabilities concentrated in those ranges, with only modest risk priced for 104°F+ if the ridge strengthens slightly. Traders are monitoring the final model runs and evening observations for any late adjustments ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,602End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Austin point to a high near 102–103°F on August 18 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, positioning the 100–103°F bins as the clear market leaders. This aligns with mid-August climatology, when the seasonal upper-level ridge typically supports daytime maxima around the 99°F average while allowing brief excursions into the low 100s. Minimal model spread and stable atmospheric conditions have kept implied probabilities concentrated in those ranges, with only modest risk priced for 104°F+ if the ridge strengthens slightly. Traders are monitoring the final model runs and evening observations for any late adjustments ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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