National Weather Service observations and forecast models indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover over Houston on June 4 limited daytime heating, holding the official high at the William P. Hobby Airport station to 84–85 °F. This convective suppression deviated from early-June climatological normals of 88–92 °F, where clearer skies typically allow stronger insolation and surface warming. Market-implied odds reflect near-certainty in the measured maximum, consistent with real-time station data and the resolution criteria tied to National Weather Service climatological reports. A later shift in storm timing or reduced cloud cover could have nudged readings into the 86–87 °F range, though current guidance and post-event verification rule out such outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on June 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on June 4?
84-85°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$42,031 Vol.
$42,031 Vol.
Jun 4, 2026
73°F or below
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
Yes
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92°F or higher
No
84-85°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$42,031 Vol.
$42,031 Vol.
Jun 4, 2026
73°F or below
$187 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$681 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,256 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$7,630 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$6,022 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$4,611 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$6,216 Vol.
Yes
86-87°F
$5,978 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$3,563 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$4,323 Vol.
No
92°F or higher
$1,565 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations and forecast models indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover over Houston on June 4 limited daytime heating, holding the official high at the William P. Hobby Airport station to 84–85 °F. This convective suppression deviated from early-June climatological normals of 88–92 °F, where clearer skies typically allow stronger insolation and surface warming. Market-implied odds reflect near-certainty in the measured maximum, consistent with real-time station data and the resolution criteria tied to National Weather Service climatological reports. A later shift in storm timing or reduced cloud cover could have nudged readings into the 86–87 °F range, though current guidance and post-event verification rule out such outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$42,031End Date
Jun 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations and forecast models indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover over Houston on June 4 limited daytime heating, holding the official high at the William P. Hobby Airport station to 84–85 °F. This convective suppression deviated from early-June climatological normals of 88–92 °F, where clearer skies typically allow stronger insolation and surface warming. Market-implied odds reflect near-certainty in the measured maximum, consistent with real-time station data and the resolution criteria tied to National Weather Service climatological reports. A later shift in storm timing or reduced cloud cover could have nudged readings into the 86–87 °F range, though current guidance and post-event verification rule out such outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,031End Date
Jun 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service observations and forecast models indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover over Houston on June 4 limited daytime heating, holding the official high at the William P. Hobby Airport station to 84–85 °F. This convective suppression deviated from early-June climatological normals of 88–92 °F, where clearer skies typically allow stronger insolation and surface warming. Market-implied odds reflect near-certainty in the measured maximum, consistent with real-time station data and the resolution criteria tied to National Weather Service climatological reports. A later shift in storm timing or reduced cloud cover could have nudged readings into the 86–87 °F range, though current guidance and post-event verification rule out such outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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