Current short-range ensemble guidance from INMET and global models places São Paulo’s July 12 maximum near the seasonal 21–22 °C climatological baseline, yet with modest warm bias supporting the market’s near-even 32 % odds on 23 °C versus 24 °C. Subtropical winter conditions feature a stable Atlantic high, light northeasterly flow, and limited moisture that keeps diurnal warming sensitive to small differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July maxima cluster tightly around 21–23 °C, so one-degree distinctions hinge on whether afternoon insolation peaks slightly above or below model consensus before official INMET observations resolve the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 12?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$34,467 Vol.
$34,467 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$34,467 Vol.
$34,467 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
19°C or below
$1,095 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,346 Vol.
No
21°C
$4,602 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,093 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,880 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$2,911 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,123 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,188 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,564 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,335 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$1,331 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble guidance from INMET and global models places São Paulo’s July 12 maximum near the seasonal 21–22 °C climatological baseline, yet with modest warm bias supporting the market’s near-even 32 % odds on 23 °C versus 24 °C. Subtropical winter conditions feature a stable Atlantic high, light northeasterly flow, and limited moisture that keeps diurnal warming sensitive to small differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July maxima cluster tightly around 21–23 °C, so one-degree distinctions hinge on whether afternoon insolation peaks slightly above or below model consensus before official INMET observations resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volume
$34,467End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble guidance from INMET and global models places São Paulo’s July 12 maximum near the seasonal 21–22 °C climatological baseline, yet with modest warm bias supporting the market’s near-even 32 % odds on 23 °C versus 24 °C. Subtropical winter conditions feature a stable Atlantic high, light northeasterly flow, and limited moisture that keeps diurnal warming sensitive to small differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July maxima cluster tightly around 21–23 °C, so one-degree distinctions hinge on whether afternoon insolation peaks slightly above or below model consensus before official INMET observations resolve the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,467End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current short-range ensemble guidance from INMET and global models places São Paulo’s July 12 maximum near the seasonal 21–22 °C climatological baseline, yet with modest warm bias supporting the market’s near-even 32 % odds on 23 °C versus 24 °C. Subtropical winter conditions feature a stable Atlantic high, light northeasterly flow, and limited moisture that keeps diurnal warming sensitive to small differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July maxima cluster tightly around 21–23 °C, so one-degree distinctions hinge on whether afternoon insolation peaks slightly above or below model consensus before official INMET observations resolve the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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