Recent Met Office guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a maximum of 20°C in London on September 16 under moderate westerly flow, with increasing afternoon cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This forecast consensus underpins the 61% market-implied probability for 20°C, followed by 19°C at 21%. Westerly winds around 10-15 mph and dew points near 10-12°C further constrain warming potential relative to clearer conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only low-probability scenarios supporting 21°C or higher if breaks in cloud develop earlier. Updated model runs and the Met Office’s afternoon briefing on September 15 represent the next key data points that could refine these near-term odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 16?
Highest temperature in London on September 16?
20°C 64%
19°C 20%
21°C 10%
18°C 5%
NEW
$23,299 Vol.
NEW
$23,299 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
5%
19°C
20%
20°C
64%
21°C
10%
22°C
2%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 64%
19°C 20%
21°C 10%
18°C 5%
NEW
$23,299 Vol.
NEW
$23,299 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
15°C or below
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$628 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,978 Vol.
5%
19°C
$4,638 Vol.
20%
20°C
$9,493 Vol.
64%
21°C
$2,984 Vol.
10%
22°C
$1,047 Vol.
2%
23°C
$809 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$635 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a maximum of 20°C in London on September 16 under moderate westerly flow, with increasing afternoon cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This forecast consensus underpins the 61% market-implied probability for 20°C, followed by 19°C at 21%. Westerly winds around 10-15 mph and dew points near 10-12°C further constrain warming potential relative to clearer conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only low-probability scenarios supporting 21°C or higher if breaks in cloud develop earlier. Updated model runs and the Met Office’s afternoon briefing on September 15 represent the next key data points that could refine these near-term odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$23,299End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a maximum of 20°C in London on September 16 under moderate westerly flow, with increasing afternoon cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This forecast consensus underpins the 61% market-implied probability for 20°C, followed by 19°C at 21%. Westerly winds around 10-15 mph and dew points near 10-12°C further constrain warming potential relative to clearer conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only low-probability scenarios supporting 21°C or higher if breaks in cloud develop earlier. Updated model runs and the Met Office’s afternoon briefing on September 15 represent the next key data points that could refine these near-term odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,299End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a maximum of 20°C in London on September 16 under moderate westerly flow, with increasing afternoon cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This forecast consensus underpins the 61% market-implied probability for 20°C, followed by 19°C at 21%. Westerly winds around 10-15 mph and dew points near 10-12°C further constrain warming potential relative to clearer conditions. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only low-probability scenarios supporting 21°C or higher if breaks in cloud develop earlier. Updated model runs and the Met Office’s afternoon briefing on September 15 represent the next key data points that could refine these near-term odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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