Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 74-81°F for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 28, with 80-81°F leading at 23.5% implied probability, propelled by NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 78-80°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Southwest. Differentiating factors include offshore Santa Ana winds in warmer runs, potentially eroding coastal marine layer for peaks near 81°F, versus persistent stratus decks and onshore flow in cooler ensembles capping highs at 74-77°F (43% combined odds). Above-normal March patterns historically favor 70-75°F baselines at LAX, but diurnal heating and minimal cloud cover tilt toward the upper end; monitor 12z model updates for pivotal shifts ahead of official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
72-73°F 31%
76-77°F 22%
78-79°F 19%
74-75°F 18%
67°F or below
13%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
6%
86°F or higher
16%
72-73°F 31%
76-77°F 22%
78-79°F 19%
74-75°F 18%
67°F or below
13%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
6%
86°F or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 74-81°F for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 28, with 80-81°F leading at 23.5% implied probability, propelled by NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 78-80°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Southwest. Differentiating factors include offshore Santa Ana winds in warmer runs, potentially eroding coastal marine layer for peaks near 81°F, versus persistent stratus decks and onshore flow in cooler ensembles capping highs at 74-77°F (43% combined odds). Above-normal March patterns historically favor 70-75°F baselines at LAX, but diurnal heating and minimal cloud cover tilt toward the upper end; monitor 12z model updates for pivotal shifts ahead of official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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