Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover represent the main driver behind trader consensus clustering around 30–32°C for Lucknow’s August 31 maximum. Official IMD guidance indicates mainly clear skies with strong surface winds and a forecast high near 34°C, yet widespread thundershower activity and high humidity—observed at 87–95% recently—typically suppress daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Model runs show modest cooling potential from scattered convection, consistent with the tight spread in market-implied odds and historical late-August patterns where rain events cap temperatures 2–4°C below clear-sky maxima. Updated IMD briefings and next-day observational data will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on August 31?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 31?
31°C 39%
29°C 24%
30°C 20%
32°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
24%
30°C
20%
31°C
28%
32°C
19%
33°C
20%
34°C or higher
10%
31°C 39%
29°C 24%
30°C 20%
32°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
24%
30°C
$1 Vol.
20%
31°C
$6 Vol.
28%
32°C
$32 Vol.
19%
33°C
$0 Vol.
20%
34°C or higher
$14 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover represent the main driver behind trader consensus clustering around 30–32°C for Lucknow’s August 31 maximum. Official IMD guidance indicates mainly clear skies with strong surface winds and a forecast high near 34°C, yet widespread thundershower activity and high humidity—observed at 87–95% recently—typically suppress daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Model runs show modest cooling potential from scattered convection, consistent with the tight spread in market-implied odds and historical late-August patterns where rain events cap temperatures 2–4°C below clear-sky maxima. Updated IMD briefings and next-day observational data will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$54End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover represent the main driver behind trader consensus clustering around 30–32°C for Lucknow’s August 31 maximum. Official IMD guidance indicates mainly clear skies with strong surface winds and a forecast high near 34°C, yet widespread thundershower activity and high humidity—observed at 87–95% recently—typically suppress daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Model runs show modest cooling potential from scattered convection, consistent with the tight spread in market-implied odds and historical late-August patterns where rain events cap temperatures 2–4°C below clear-sky maxima. Updated IMD briefings and next-day observational data will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover represent the main driver behind trader consensus clustering around 30–32°C for Lucknow’s August 31 maximum. Official IMD guidance indicates mainly clear skies with strong surface winds and a forecast high near 34°C, yet widespread thundershower activity and high humidity—observed at 87–95% recently—typically suppress daytime peaks by limiting solar heating. Model runs show modest cooling potential from scattered convection, consistent with the tight spread in market-implied odds and historical late-August patterns where rain events cap temperatures 2–4°C below clear-sky maxima. Updated IMD briefings and next-day observational data will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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