Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters implied probabilities around 14–17°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 13, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and Italy's Aeronautica Militare weather service. Mid-April climatology in the Po Valley typically sees average highs near 17°C, but current model spreads highlight differentiating factors like variable cloud cover suppressing solar insolation, potential northerly winds advecting cooler continental air, and lingering effects from recent frontal passages over northern Italy. Historical data shows daily highs fluctuating 3–5°C around the mean due to these boundary layer dynamics. Hourly updates from ARPA Lombardia monitoring stations expected overnight will likely sharpen the outlook before resolution based on official observations from Milano Linate Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on April 13?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 13?
15°C 28%
16°C 28%
17°C or higher 26%
14°C 23%
$11,909 Vol.
$11,909 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
23%
15°C
28%
16°C
28%
17°C or higher
26%
15°C 28%
16°C 28%
17°C or higher 26%
14°C 23%
$11,909 Vol.
$11,909 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
23%
15°C
28%
16°C
28%
17°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters implied probabilities around 14–17°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 13, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and Italy's Aeronautica Militare weather service. Mid-April climatology in the Po Valley typically sees average highs near 17°C, but current model spreads highlight differentiating factors like variable cloud cover suppressing solar insolation, potential northerly winds advecting cooler continental air, and lingering effects from recent frontal passages over northern Italy. Historical data shows daily highs fluctuating 3–5°C around the mean due to these boundary layer dynamics. Hourly updates from ARPA Lombardia monitoring stations expected overnight will likely sharpen the outlook before resolution based on official observations from Milano Linate Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions