The closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 1°C or below to 11°C or higher reflect high uncertainty in Moscow's early-spring weather forecasting, with ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing a wide spread of daily maximum temperatures around 2–10°C four days out. Recent cooling after April 4 highs near 12–17°C, per Roshydromet observations, stems from an advancing low-pressure system over European Russia, potentially drawing Arctic air masses southward and limiting diurnal warming via cloudiness and light precipitation. Moscow's humid continental climate (Köppen Dfb) features pronounced variability, with historical April 8 highs averaging 6–9°C amid frequent frontal passages. Key differentiators include wind direction—northerly for cold advection versus southerly for mild anomalies—and cloud cover; traders eye 00Z/12Z model runs for updates on upper-level steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on April 8?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 8?
6°C 19%
8°C 19%
9°C 19%
5°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 8, 2026
1°C or below
5%
2°C
3%
3°C
11%
4°C
16%
5°C
18%
6°C
19%
7°C
18%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
18%
11°C or higher
18%
6°C 19%
8°C 19%
9°C 19%
5°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 8, 2026
1°C or below
$92 Vol.
5%
2°C
$82 Vol.
3%
3°C
$0 Vol.
11%
4°C
$0 Vol.
16%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$0 Vol.
19%
7°C
$0 Vol.
18%
8°C
$3 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C or higher
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 1°C or below to 11°C or higher reflect high uncertainty in Moscow's early-spring weather forecasting, with ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing a wide spread of daily maximum temperatures around 2–10°C four days out. Recent cooling after April 4 highs near 12–17°C, per Roshydromet observations, stems from an advancing low-pressure system over European Russia, potentially drawing Arctic air masses southward and limiting diurnal warming via cloudiness and light precipitation. Moscow's humid continental climate (Köppen Dfb) features pronounced variability, with historical April 8 highs averaging 6–9°C amid frequent frontal passages. Key differentiators include wind direction—northerly for cold advection versus southerly for mild anomalies—and cloud cover; traders eye 00Z/12Z model runs for updates on upper-level steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$177End Date
Apr 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 1°C or below to 11°C or higher reflect high uncertainty in Moscow's early-spring weather forecasting, with ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing a wide spread of daily maximum temperatures around 2–10°C four days out. Recent cooling after April 4 highs near 12–17°C, per Roshydromet observations, stems from an advancing low-pressure system over European Russia, potentially drawing Arctic air masses southward and limiting diurnal warming via cloudiness and light precipitation. Moscow's humid continental climate (Köppen Dfb) features pronounced variability, with historical April 8 highs averaging 6–9°C amid frequent frontal passages. Key differentiators include wind direction—northerly for cold advection versus southerly for mild anomalies—and cloud cover; traders eye 00Z/12Z model runs for updates on upper-level steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$177End Date
Apr 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied probabilities across outcomes from 1°C or below to 11°C or higher reflect high uncertainty in Moscow's early-spring weather forecasting, with ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models showing a wide spread of daily maximum temperatures around 2–10°C four days out. Recent cooling after April 4 highs near 12–17°C, per Roshydromet observations, stems from an advancing low-pressure system over European Russia, potentially drawing Arctic air masses southward and limiting diurnal warming via cloudiness and light precipitation. Moscow's humid continental climate (Köppen Dfb) features pronounced variability, with historical April 8 highs averaging 6–9°C amid frequent frontal passages. Key differentiators include wind direction—northerly for cold advection versus southerly for mild anomalies—and cloud cover; traders eye 00Z/12Z model runs for updates on upper-level steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions