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Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?

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Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 16

84-85°F 30%

86-87°F 21%

82-83°F 20%

88-89°F 13%

Polymarket
NEW

84-85°F 30%

86-87°F 21%

82-83°F 20%

88-89°F 13%

Polymarket
NEW

77°F or below

$1,227 Vol.

2%

78-79°F

$518 Vol.

4%

80-81°F

$213 Vol.

11%

82-83°F

$385 Vol.

25%

84-85°F

$204 Vol.

30%

86-87°F

$295 Vol.

21%

88-89°F

$903 Vol.

13%

90-91°F

$1,076 Vol.

6%

92-93°F

$547 Vol.

1%

94-95°F

$464 Vol.

<1%

96°F or higher

$808 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 82-83°F (28.5%) and 84-85°F (27.5%) for New York City's highest temperature on April 16, driven by National Weather Service guidance and model consensus from GFS and ECMWF showing peaks in the low-to-mid 80s amid a strengthening upper-level ridge advecting warm southerly air with light winds allowing robust diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon sea breeze development onshore from cooler Atlantic waters, which could cap peaks at 82-83°F by enhancing boundary layer mixing, versus clearer skies and delayed onshore flow permitting 84-85°F under full solar insolation—reflected in ensemble spread and recent 00z runs trending slightly warmer. Current April 15 observations near 86°F underscore the warm anomaly above the 61°F climatological average, with updated forecasts due this evening potentially sharpening odds ahead of resolution at Central Park's official station.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,584
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 82-83°F (28.5%) and 84-85°F (27.5%) for New York City's highest temperature on April 16, driven by National Weather Service guidance and model consensus from GFS and ECMWF showing peaks in the low-to-mid 80s amid a strengthening upper-level ridge advecting warm southerly air with light winds allowing robust diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon sea breeze development onshore from cooler Atlantic waters, which could cap peaks at 82-83°F by enhancing boundary layer mixing, versus clearer skies and delayed onshore flow permitting 84-85°F under full solar insolation—reflected in ensemble spread and recent 00z runs trending slightly warmer. Current April 15 observations near 86°F underscore the warm anomaly above the 61°F climatological average, with updated forecasts due this evening potentially sharpening odds ahead of resolution at Central Park's official station.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,584
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "84-85°F" at 30%, followed by "82-83°F" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?" is "84-85°F" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "82-83°F" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in NYC on April 16?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.