Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 68-69°F in San Francisco on April 17, 2026, based on verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), as reported by Weather Underground—the market's resolution source. This positioning stems from official hourly records peaking at 68 or 69°F around midday amid mostly sunny conditions, light onshore winds, and typical spring marine layer dissipation, consistent with NOAA forecast model consensus predicting highs in the upper 60s after recent rainy weather cleared. Historical April averages hover around 64°F, making this mildly above-normal but unremarkable; only a rare post hoc data correction from NWS auditors could challenge resolution, though such revisions are infrequent for established readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 17?
68-69°F 100.0%
57°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$90,754 Vol.
$90,754 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
57°F or below
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76°F or higher
No
68-69°F 100.0%
57°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$90,754 Vol.
$90,754 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
57°F or below
$6,292 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$3,527 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$4,875 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$4,189 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$6,664 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$6,610 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$30,468 Vol.
Yes
70-71°F
$11,231 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$7,183 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$4,594 Vol.
No
76°F or higher
$5,120 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 68-69°F in San Francisco on April 17, 2026, based on verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), as reported by Weather Underground—the market's resolution source. This positioning stems from official hourly records peaking at 68 or 69°F around midday amid mostly sunny conditions, light onshore winds, and typical spring marine layer dissipation, consistent with NOAA forecast model consensus predicting highs in the upper 60s after recent rainy weather cleared. Historical April averages hover around 64°F, making this mildly above-normal but unremarkable; only a rare post hoc data correction from NWS auditors could challenge resolution, though such revisions are infrequent for established readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Volume
$90,754End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 68-69°F in San Francisco on April 17, 2026, based on verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), as reported by Weather Underground—the market's resolution source. This positioning stems from official hourly records peaking at 68 or 69°F around midday amid mostly sunny conditions, light onshore winds, and typical spring marine layer dissipation, consistent with NOAA forecast model consensus predicting highs in the upper 60s after recent rainy weather cleared. Historical April averages hover around 64°F, making this mildly above-normal but unremarkable; only a rare post hoc data correction from NWS auditors could challenge resolution, though such revisions are infrequent for established readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$90,754End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 68-69°F in San Francisco on April 17, 2026, based on verified observational data from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), as reported by Weather Underground—the market's resolution source. This positioning stems from official hourly records peaking at 68 or 69°F around midday amid mostly sunny conditions, light onshore winds, and typical spring marine layer dissipation, consistent with NOAA forecast model consensus predicting highs in the upper 60s after recent rainy weather cleared. Historical April averages hover around 64°F, making this mildly above-normal but unremarkable; only a rare post hoc data correction from NWS auditors could challenge resolution, though such revisions are infrequent for established readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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