Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 27.5°C during the afternoon under clear skies and light southerly winds. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) summaries confirm this maximum in the past 24 hours, matching pre-dawn forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and UK Met Office, which projected 27°C amid post-cold snap recovery. With evening temperatures dropping to 15°C by 18:00, further warming is impossible; only an improbable official data revision upward could challenge this positioning before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$195,816 Vol.
$195,816 Vol.
May 5, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$195,816 Vol.
$195,816 Vol.
May 5, 2026
20°C or below
$11,622 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,858 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,233 Vol.
No
23°C
$20,136 Vol.
No
24°C
$15,880 Vol.
No
25°C
$21,646 Vol.
No
26°C
$17,859 Vol.
No
27°C
$34,520 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$27,300 Vol.
No
29°C
$18,493 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$18,268 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 27.5°C during the afternoon under clear skies and light southerly winds. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) summaries confirm this maximum in the past 24 hours, matching pre-dawn forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and UK Met Office, which projected 27°C amid post-cold snap recovery. With evening temperatures dropping to 15°C by 18:00, further warming is impossible; only an improbable official data revision upward could challenge this positioning before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$195,816End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 27.5°C during the afternoon under clear skies and light southerly winds. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) summaries confirm this maximum in the past 24 hours, matching pre-dawn forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and UK Met Office, which projected 27°C amid post-cold snap recovery. With evening temperatures dropping to 15°C by 18:00, further warming is impossible; only an improbable official data revision upward could challenge this positioning before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$195,816End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 27.5°C during the afternoon under clear skies and light southerly winds. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) summaries confirm this maximum in the past 24 hours, matching pre-dawn forecast guidance from global models like ECMWF and UK Met Office, which projected 27°C amid post-cold snap recovery. With evening temperatures dropping to 15°C by 18:00, further warming is impossible; only an improbable official data revision upward could challenge this positioning before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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