Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo on April 22, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from the Tokyo reference station, where hourly readings peaked at 22°C mid-afternoon under mild high-pressure conditions and light winds. This aligns precisely with JMA's April 20 forecast of around 21°C and seasonal normals of 21.2°C maximum, reflecting typical late-spring atmospheric stability with minimal convective activity. Current evening temperatures are declining toward 15–18°C amid partial cloudiness, reducing upside risk. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-day heat burst before sunset— improbable given cooling trends and model consensus—or a post hoc measurement revision by JMA, with final daily data expected shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 22?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$159,626 Vol.
$159,626 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$159,626 Vol.
$159,626 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
14°C or below
$5,163 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,667 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,271 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,513 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,660 Vol.
No
19°C
$7,879 Vol.
No
20°C
$12,820 Vol.
No
21°C
$61,967 Vol.
No
22°C
$27,282 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$12,672 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$18,732 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo on April 22, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from the Tokyo reference station, where hourly readings peaked at 22°C mid-afternoon under mild high-pressure conditions and light winds. This aligns precisely with JMA's April 20 forecast of around 21°C and seasonal normals of 21.2°C maximum, reflecting typical late-spring atmospheric stability with minimal convective activity. Current evening temperatures are declining toward 15–18°C amid partial cloudiness, reducing upside risk. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-day heat burst before sunset— improbable given cooling trends and model consensus—or a post hoc measurement revision by JMA, with final daily data expected shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$159,626End Date
Apr 22, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo on April 22, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from the Tokyo reference station, where hourly readings peaked at 22°C mid-afternoon under mild high-pressure conditions and light winds. This aligns precisely with JMA's April 20 forecast of around 21°C and seasonal normals of 21.2°C maximum, reflecting typical late-spring atmospheric stability with minimal convective activity. Current evening temperatures are declining toward 15–18°C amid partial cloudiness, reducing upside risk. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-day heat burst before sunset— improbable given cooling trends and model consensus—or a post hoc measurement revision by JMA, with final daily data expected shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$159,626End Date
Apr 22, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo on April 22, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data from the Tokyo reference station, where hourly readings peaked at 22°C mid-afternoon under mild high-pressure conditions and light winds. This aligns precisely with JMA's April 20 forecast of around 21°C and seasonal normals of 21.2°C maximum, reflecting typical late-spring atmospheric stability with minimal convective activity. Current evening temperatures are declining toward 15–18°C amid partial cloudiness, reducing upside risk. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous late-day heat burst before sunset— improbable given cooling trends and model consensus—or a post hoc measurement revision by JMA, with final daily data expected shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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