Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 9–11°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 8, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model spread amid an incoming cold arctic maritime air mass from the north, as noted in recent IMGW updates. This follows a variable early April pattern with prior mild conditions giving way to northerly flow starting April 8, potentially capping daytime highs through increased cloud cover and gusty winds, though GFS runs suggest slightly warmer outcomes if the front delays. Historical early-April averages hover near 10°C, amplifying uncertainty in short-range predictions; watch IMGW daily briefings and ECMWF 12z runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 8?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 8?
11°C or higher 27%
9°C 23%
10°C 23%
8°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 8, 2026
1°C or below
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
5%
7°C
11%
8°C
16%
9°C
23%
10°C
23%
11°C or higher
27%
11°C or higher 27%
9°C 23%
10°C 23%
8°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 8, 2026
1°C or below
$386 Vol.
1%
2°C
$373 Vol.
1%
3°C
$409 Vol.
1%
4°C
$502 Vol.
1%
5°C
$507 Vol.
1%
6°C
$0 Vol.
5%
7°C
$69 Vol.
11%
8°C
$10 Vol.
16%
9°C
$0 Vol.
23%
10°C
$2 Vol.
23%
11°C or higher
$0 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 9–11°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 8, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model spread amid an incoming cold arctic maritime air mass from the north, as noted in recent IMGW updates. This follows a variable early April pattern with prior mild conditions giving way to northerly flow starting April 8, potentially capping daytime highs through increased cloud cover and gusty winds, though GFS runs suggest slightly warmer outcomes if the front delays. Historical early-April averages hover near 10°C, amplifying uncertainty in short-range predictions; watch IMGW daily briefings and ECMWF 12z runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$2,257End Date
Apr 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 9–11°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 8, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model spread amid an incoming cold arctic maritime air mass from the north, as noted in recent IMGW updates. This follows a variable early April pattern with prior mild conditions giving way to northerly flow starting April 8, potentially capping daytime highs through increased cloud cover and gusty winds, though GFS runs suggest slightly warmer outcomes if the front delays. Historical early-April averages hover near 10°C, amplifying uncertainty in short-range predictions; watch IMGW daily briefings and ECMWF 12z runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,257End Date
Apr 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 9–11°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 8, driven by the latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing model spread amid an incoming cold arctic maritime air mass from the north, as noted in recent IMGW updates. This follows a variable early April pattern with prior mild conditions giving way to northerly flow starting April 8, potentially capping daytime highs through increased cloud cover and gusty winds, though GFS runs suggest slightly warmer outcomes if the front delays. Historical early-April averages hover near 10°C, amplifying uncertainty in short-range predictions; watch IMGW daily briefings and ECMWF 12z runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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