Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW guidance updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus highs of 18-22°C for Warsaw on May 7, driven by a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild Atlantic air masses amid typical spring warming. Current upper-level charts at 500 hPa confirm stable ridging, minimizing cooling influences despite scattered thunderstorms and 50% precipitation odds that may limit peaks slightly but not below 18°C. This aligns with Warsaw's climatological May average high of 19°C from historical observations. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects short-range forecast accuracy exceeding 95% for daytime maxima; realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front surge or persistent overcast skies capping solar heating, though model ensembles assign <5% odds to sub-18°C outcomes ahead of final overnight advisories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 7?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 7?
18°C or higher 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,811 Vol.
$26,811 Vol.
May 7, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
Yes
18°C or higher 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,811 Vol.
$26,811 Vol.
May 7, 2026
8°C or below
$590 Vol.
No
9°C
$738 Vol.
No
10°C
$552 Vol.
No
11°C
$345 Vol.
No
12°C
$595 Vol.
No
13°C
$583 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,994 Vol.
No
15°C
$4,745 Vol.
No
16°C
$4,906 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,767 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$7,997 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW guidance updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus highs of 18-22°C for Warsaw on May 7, driven by a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild Atlantic air masses amid typical spring warming. Current upper-level charts at 500 hPa confirm stable ridging, minimizing cooling influences despite scattered thunderstorms and 50% precipitation odds that may limit peaks slightly but not below 18°C. This aligns with Warsaw's climatological May average high of 19°C from historical observations. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects short-range forecast accuracy exceeding 95% for daytime maxima; realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front surge or persistent overcast skies capping solar heating, though model ensembles assign <5% odds to sub-18°C outcomes ahead of final overnight advisories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$26,811End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW guidance updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus highs of 18-22°C for Warsaw on May 7, driven by a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild Atlantic air masses amid typical spring warming. Current upper-level charts at 500 hPa confirm stable ridging, minimizing cooling influences despite scattered thunderstorms and 50% precipitation odds that may limit peaks slightly but not below 18°C. This aligns with Warsaw's climatological May average high of 19°C from historical observations. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects short-range forecast accuracy exceeding 95% for daytime maxima; realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front surge or persistent overcast skies capping solar heating, though model ensembles assign <5% odds to sub-18°C outcomes ahead of final overnight advisories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,811End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF, GFS, and Polish IMGW guidance updated within the last 24 hours, show consensus highs of 18-22°C for Warsaw on May 7, driven by a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild Atlantic air masses amid typical spring warming. Current upper-level charts at 500 hPa confirm stable ridging, minimizing cooling influences despite scattered thunderstorms and 50% precipitation odds that may limit peaks slightly but not below 18°C. This aligns with Warsaw's climatological May average high of 19°C from historical observations. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects short-range forecast accuracy exceeding 95% for daytime maxima; realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front surge or persistent overcast skies capping solar heating, though model ensembles assign <5% odds to sub-18°C outcomes ahead of final overnight advisories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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