Recent numerical weather prediction model runs for Zhengzhou show daily maximum temperatures clustered between 28–31°C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C. Stable high pressure and moderate humidity levels limit stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud-cover timing across ensembles create the observed spread between 30°C and 32°C+ outcomes. Historical early-September climatology places typical highs near 29–30°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest probabilities to the narrow 30–32°C range. Updated CMA and global model guidance ahead of September 4 will likely narrow the remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 4?
Highest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 4?
30°C 34%
31°C 21%
28°C 19%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
10%
29°C
16%
30°C
34%
31°C
21%
32°C or higher
42%
30°C 34%
31°C 21%
28°C 19%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
1%
27°C
$5 Vol.
3%
28°C
$5 Vol.
10%
29°C
$5 Vol.
16%
30°C
$10 Vol.
34%
31°C
$11 Vol.
21%
32°C or higher
$11 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs for Zhengzhou show daily maximum temperatures clustered between 28–31°C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C. Stable high pressure and moderate humidity levels limit stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud-cover timing across ensembles create the observed spread between 30°C and 32°C+ outcomes. Historical early-September climatology places typical highs near 29–30°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest probabilities to the narrow 30–32°C range. Updated CMA and global model guidance ahead of September 4 will likely narrow the remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$72End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model runs for Zhengzhou show daily maximum temperatures clustered between 28–31°C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C. Stable high pressure and moderate humidity levels limit stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud-cover timing across ensembles create the observed spread between 30°C and 32°C+ outcomes. Historical early-September climatology places typical highs near 29–30°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest probabilities to the narrow 30–32°C range. Updated CMA and global model guidance ahead of September 4 will likely narrow the remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$72End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction model runs for Zhengzhou show daily maximum temperatures clustered between 28–31°C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C. Stable high pressure and moderate humidity levels limit stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and cloud-cover timing across ensembles create the observed spread between 30°C and 32°C+ outcomes. Historical early-September climatology places typical highs near 29–30°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest probabilities to the narrow 30–32°C range. Updated CMA and global model guidance ahead of September 4 will likely narrow the remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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