Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and succession to Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused pragmatic officials such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or political takeover. They cite the new supreme leader's prolonged public absence, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining of parliament, and pursuit of U.S. truce talks. On August 17, 2026, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned of potential coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration amid economic strain and security concerns. A visible shift toward military figures in governance and ongoing sanctions pressure add to assessments of instability, though no violent overthrow has materialized and upcoming diplomacy or protests could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,122,921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,921 Vol.
December 31
$81,696 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and succession to Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused pragmatic officials such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or political takeover. They cite the new supreme leader's prolonged public absence, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining of parliament, and pursuit of U.S. truce talks. On August 17, 2026, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned of potential coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration amid economic strain and security concerns. A visible shift toward military figures in governance and ongoing sanctions pressure add to assessments of instability, though no violent overthrow has materialized and upcoming diplomacy or protests could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,921End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and succession to Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused pragmatic officials such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or political takeover. They cite the new supreme leader's prolonged public absence, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining of parliament, and pursuit of U.S. truce talks. On August 17, 2026, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned of potential coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration amid economic strain and security concerns. A visible shift toward military figures in governance and ongoing sanctions pressure add to assessments of instability, though no violent overthrow has materialized and upcoming diplomacy or protests could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,921End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and succession to Mojtaba Khamenei have fueled trader focus on coup risks. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have repeatedly accused pragmatic officials such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or political takeover. They cite the new supreme leader's prolonged public absence, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining of parliament, and pursuit of U.S. truce talks. On August 17, 2026, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei publicly warned of potential coups, sedition, and enemy infiltration amid economic strain and security concerns. A visible shift toward military figures in governance and ongoing sanctions pressure add to assessments of instability, though no violent overthrow has materialized and upcoming diplomacy or protests could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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