Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s March succession amid IRGC leadership changes, Iranian hardliners in July publicly accused pragmatic officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a soft coup during U.S. truce negotiations strained by sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz disputes. These factional rivalries and internal power consolidation efforts represent the primary drivers behind trader assessments of regime stability. No verified coup attempt has materialized, contributing to the low implied probability reflected in current market pricing. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed military pressure could shift internal dynamics before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,114,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
11%
$2,114,263 Vol.
December 31
$73,038 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s March succession amid IRGC leadership changes, Iranian hardliners in July publicly accused pragmatic officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a soft coup during U.S. truce negotiations strained by sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz disputes. These factional rivalries and internal power consolidation efforts represent the primary drivers behind trader assessments of regime stability. No verified coup attempt has materialized, contributing to the low implied probability reflected in current market pricing. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed military pressure could shift internal dynamics before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,114,263End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s March succession amid IRGC leadership changes, Iranian hardliners in July publicly accused pragmatic officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a soft coup during U.S. truce negotiations strained by sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz disputes. These factional rivalries and internal power consolidation efforts represent the primary drivers behind trader assessments of regime stability. No verified coup attempt has materialized, contributing to the low implied probability reflected in current market pricing. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed military pressure could shift internal dynamics before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,114,263End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s March succession amid IRGC leadership changes, Iranian hardliners in July publicly accused pragmatic officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of orchestrating a soft coup during U.S. truce negotiations strained by sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz disputes. These factional rivalries and internal power consolidation efforts represent the primary drivers behind trader assessments of regime stability. No verified coup attempt has materialized, contributing to the low implied probability reflected in current market pricing. Scheduled diplomatic talks or renewed military pressure could shift internal dynamics before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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