The market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a 76-77°F low in Austin on September 9 reflects strong consensus from National Weather Service observations and model consensus on overnight conditions. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including high pressure and limited moisture, typically support minimum temperatures in this range for central Texas, consistent with climatological baselines from NOAA data. Recent model runs showed minimal deviation, with steering currents preventing cooler air advection. Resolution hinges on official thermometer readings meeting the exact threshold criteria. Unlikely shifts could arise only from revised station data or microclimate discrepancies, though historical verification rates for such markets remain high given direct observational inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 9?
76-77°F 94%
72-73°F 7%
74-75°F 7%
70-71°F 3%
$1,202 Vol.
$1,202 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
94%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 94%
72-73°F 7%
74-75°F 7%
70-71°F 3%
$1,202 Vol.
$1,202 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
69°F or below
$93 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$158 Vol.
3%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$12 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$185 Vol.
94%
78-79°F
$176 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$50 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$80 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$114 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$185 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$129 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a 76-77°F low in Austin on September 9 reflects strong consensus from National Weather Service observations and model consensus on overnight conditions. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including high pressure and limited moisture, typically support minimum temperatures in this range for central Texas, consistent with climatological baselines from NOAA data. Recent model runs showed minimal deviation, with steering currents preventing cooler air advection. Resolution hinges on official thermometer readings meeting the exact threshold criteria. Unlikely shifts could arise only from revised station data or microclimate discrepancies, though historical verification rates for such markets remain high given direct observational inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,202End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a 76-77°F low in Austin on September 9 reflects strong consensus from National Weather Service observations and model consensus on overnight conditions. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including high pressure and limited moisture, typically support minimum temperatures in this range for central Texas, consistent with climatological baselines from NOAA data. Recent model runs showed minimal deviation, with steering currents preventing cooler air advection. Resolution hinges on official thermometer readings meeting the exact threshold criteria. Unlikely shifts could arise only from revised station data or microclimate discrepancies, though historical verification rates for such markets remain high given direct observational inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,202End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied probability exceeding 90% for a 76-77°F low in Austin on September 9 reflects strong consensus from National Weather Service observations and model consensus on overnight conditions. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including high pressure and limited moisture, typically support minimum temperatures in this range for central Texas, consistent with climatological baselines from NOAA data. Recent model runs showed minimal deviation, with steering currents preventing cooler air advection. Resolution hinges on official thermometer readings meeting the exact threshold criteria. Unlikely shifts could arise only from revised station data or microclimate discrepancies, though historical verification rates for such markets remain high given direct observational inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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