Recent forecast guidance from global models shows Beijing's daily minimum on August 30 likely near 18–19 °C under clearing skies after several days of rain and a modest cool-air advection from the northwest. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by light winds and residual boundary-layer moisture, while daytime heating to 32 °C limits the diurnal range. Historical late-August normals place the average low near 19.6 °C, with record lows only reaching the low teens under stronger high-pressure setups. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–18 °C reflects modest ensemble spread in minimum-temperature guidance and uncertainty in exact dew-point depression, with traders weighing the latest model runs against the possibility of slightly stronger northerly flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 30?
15°C 49%
19°C 49%
14°C 44%
23°C or higher 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
14%
14°C
44%
15°C
49%
16°C
27%
17°C
29%
18°C
30%
19°C
49%
20°C
24%
21°C
7%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
37%
15°C 49%
19°C 49%
14°C 44%
23°C or higher 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$153 Vol.
7%
22°C
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from global models shows Beijing's daily minimum on August 30 likely near 18–19 °C under clearing skies after several days of rain and a modest cool-air advection from the northwest. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by light winds and residual boundary-layer moisture, while daytime heating to 32 °C limits the diurnal range. Historical late-August normals place the average low near 19.6 °C, with record lows only reaching the low teens under stronger high-pressure setups. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–18 °C reflects modest ensemble spread in minimum-temperature guidance and uncertainty in exact dew-point depression, with traders weighing the latest model runs against the possibility of slightly stronger northerly flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$168End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from global models shows Beijing's daily minimum on August 30 likely near 18–19 °C under clearing skies after several days of rain and a modest cool-air advection from the northwest. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by light winds and residual boundary-layer moisture, while daytime heating to 32 °C limits the diurnal range. Historical late-August normals place the average low near 19.6 °C, with record lows only reaching the low teens under stronger high-pressure setups. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–18 °C reflects modest ensemble spread in minimum-temperature guidance and uncertainty in exact dew-point depression, with traders weighing the latest model runs against the possibility of slightly stronger northerly flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$168End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from global models shows Beijing's daily minimum on August 30 likely near 18–19 °C under clearing skies after several days of rain and a modest cool-air advection from the northwest. Radiative cooling overnight will be moderated by light winds and residual boundary-layer moisture, while daytime heating to 32 °C limits the diurnal range. Historical late-August normals place the average low near 19.6 °C, with record lows only reaching the low teens under stronger high-pressure setups. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–18 °C reflects modest ensemble spread in minimum-temperature guidance and uncertainty in exact dew-point depression, with traders weighing the latest model runs against the possibility of slightly stronger northerly flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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