Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across the Sichuan Basin, driving expected minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 10 toward 18–19°C amid daytime highs near 23°C. Persistent cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and evaporative cooling from moderate to heavy rain suppress daytime warming while limiting nocturnal radiative losses, narrowing the range around typical early-September lows of 18–20°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS supports this cooler pattern versus historical baselines, though slight variations in rain timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed market spread between sub-15°C and mid-20°C outcomes. Updated guidance on September 9 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 10?
24°C or higher 93%
14°C or below 88%
15°C 39%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
88%
15°C
39%
16°C
21%
17°C
21%
18°C
23%
19°C
27%
20°C
25%
21°C
21%
22°C
19%
23°C
39%
24°C or higher
93%
24°C or higher 93%
14°C or below 88%
15°C 39%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
$30 Vol.
88%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
23%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$15 Vol.
19%
23°C
$60 Vol.
39%
24°C or higher
$25 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across the Sichuan Basin, driving expected minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 10 toward 18–19°C amid daytime highs near 23°C. Persistent cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and evaporative cooling from moderate to heavy rain suppress daytime warming while limiting nocturnal radiative losses, narrowing the range around typical early-September lows of 18–20°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS supports this cooler pattern versus historical baselines, though slight variations in rain timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed market spread between sub-15°C and mid-20°C outcomes. Updated guidance on September 9 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across the Sichuan Basin, driving expected minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 10 toward 18–19°C amid daytime highs near 23°C. Persistent cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and evaporative cooling from moderate to heavy rain suppress daytime warming while limiting nocturnal radiative losses, narrowing the range around typical early-September lows of 18–20°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS supports this cooler pattern versus historical baselines, though slight variations in rain timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed market spread between sub-15°C and mid-20°C outcomes. Updated guidance on September 9 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a cold air intrusion and widespread rainfall across the Sichuan Basin, driving expected minimum temperatures in Chengdu on September 10 toward 18–19°C amid daytime highs near 23°C. Persistent cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and evaporative cooling from moderate to heavy rain suppress daytime warming while limiting nocturnal radiative losses, narrowing the range around typical early-September lows of 18–20°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS supports this cooler pattern versus historical baselines, though slight variations in rain timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed market spread between sub-15°C and mid-20°C outcomes. Updated guidance on September 9 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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