Current forecast consensus from multiple models places Helsinki’s September 4 minimum near 9–10 °C, within the climatological range for early September (historical average low ~11 °C). Market pricing nevertheless assigns the highest implied probabilities to the extremes (≤6 °C or ≥16 °C), reflecting substantial short-term uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds, and the precise timing of any passing frontal systems. Clear, calm conditions favor stronger surface heat loss and lower minima, while increased cloud cover or stronger advection from milder maritime air would limit cooling; ensemble spreads in the 48-hour window remain wide enough to keep both tails competitive until updated model runs narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 4?
6°C or below 69%
16°C or higher 59%
8°C 50%
7°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
6°C or below
69%
7°C
48%
8°C
50%
9°C
48%
10°C
48%
11°C
48%
12°C
48%
13°C
48%
14°C
19%
15°C
7%
16°C or higher
59%
6°C or below 69%
16°C or higher 59%
8°C 50%
7°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
7°C
$0 Vol.
48%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
48%
10°C
$0 Vol.
48%
11°C
$0 Vol.
48%
12°C
$5 Vol.
48%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from multiple models places Helsinki’s September 4 minimum near 9–10 °C, within the climatological range for early September (historical average low ~11 °C). Market pricing nevertheless assigns the highest implied probabilities to the extremes (≤6 °C or ≥16 °C), reflecting substantial short-term uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds, and the precise timing of any passing frontal systems. Clear, calm conditions favor stronger surface heat loss and lower minima, while increased cloud cover or stronger advection from milder maritime air would limit cooling; ensemble spreads in the 48-hour window remain wide enough to keep both tails competitive until updated model runs narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from multiple models places Helsinki’s September 4 minimum near 9–10 °C, within the climatological range for early September (historical average low ~11 °C). Market pricing nevertheless assigns the highest implied probabilities to the extremes (≤6 °C or ≥16 °C), reflecting substantial short-term uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds, and the precise timing of any passing frontal systems. Clear, calm conditions favor stronger surface heat loss and lower minima, while increased cloud cover or stronger advection from milder maritime air would limit cooling; ensemble spreads in the 48-hour window remain wide enough to keep both tails competitive until updated model runs narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from multiple models places Helsinki’s September 4 minimum near 9–10 °C, within the climatological range for early September (historical average low ~11 °C). Market pricing nevertheless assigns the highest implied probabilities to the extremes (≤6 °C or ≥16 °C), reflecting substantial short-term uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer wind speeds, and the precise timing of any passing frontal systems. Clear, calm conditions favor stronger surface heat loss and lower minima, while increased cloud cover or stronger advection from milder maritime air would limit cooling; ensemble spreads in the 48-hour window remain wide enough to keep both tails competitive until updated model runs narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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