Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Houston’s August 26 low because ensemble forecasts from NOAA and the National Weather Service show typical late-summer nocturnal cooling under subtropical high pressure, light winds, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiational heat loss. Model runs indicate minimal frontal influence or cloud-cover variability that could produce deeper cooling or retain more heat, keeping outcomes within the narrow 76–83°F window favored by traders. Historical August climatology for the region reinforces this range, while urban heat-island effects and any late-day convective remnants introduce the modest spread seen across adjacent bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 26?
72-73°F 49%
78-79°F 49%
76-77°F 26%
82-83°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
14%
72-73°F
49%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
29%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
6%
90°F or higher
6%
72-73°F 49%
78-79°F 49%
76-77°F 26%
82-83°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
71°F or below
$5 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
49%
74-75°F
$722 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
29%
80-81°F
$40 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
26%
84-85°F
$25 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$5 Vol.
6%
90°F or higher
$265 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Houston’s August 26 low because ensemble forecasts from NOAA and the National Weather Service show typical late-summer nocturnal cooling under subtropical high pressure, light winds, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiational heat loss. Model runs indicate minimal frontal influence or cloud-cover variability that could produce deeper cooling or retain more heat, keeping outcomes within the narrow 76–83°F window favored by traders. Historical August climatology for the region reinforces this range, while urban heat-island effects and any late-day convective remnants introduce the modest spread seen across adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,082End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Houston’s August 26 low because ensemble forecasts from NOAA and the National Weather Service show typical late-summer nocturnal cooling under subtropical high pressure, light winds, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiational heat loss. Model runs indicate minimal frontal influence or cloud-cover variability that could produce deeper cooling or retain more heat, keeping outcomes within the narrow 76–83°F window favored by traders. Historical August climatology for the region reinforces this range, while urban heat-island effects and any late-day convective remnants introduce the modest spread seen across adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,082End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Houston’s August 26 low because ensemble forecasts from NOAA and the National Weather Service show typical late-summer nocturnal cooling under subtropical high pressure, light winds, and high dew points near 75°F that limit radiational heat loss. Model runs indicate minimal frontal influence or cloud-cover variability that could produce deeper cooling or retain more heat, keeping outcomes within the narrow 76–83°F window favored by traders. Historical August climatology for the region reinforces this range, while urban heat-island effects and any late-day convective remnants introduce the modest spread seen across adjacent bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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