The recorded overnight minimum of 17°C in London on May 25 aligned precisely with official Met Office observations from central stations, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome to 100% while rendering all other thresholds negligible. Mild southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover overnight, and the urban heat island effect prevented temperatures from dropping further despite typical May variability. Traders incorporated the latest model guidance and real-time station data showing no sub-17°C readings. Minor resolution risk remains only if final verified reports from alternate sites or post-processing adjustments revise the figure, though historical consistency in London’s temperature network makes such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 25?
Lowest temperature in London on May 25?
17°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$20,166 Vol.
$20,166 Vol.
May 25, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$20,166 Vol.
$20,166 Vol.
May 25, 2026
10°C or below
$667 Vol.
No
11°C
$447 Vol.
No
12°C
$571 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,595 Vol.
No
14°C
$610 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,174 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,299 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,277 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$2,821 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,873 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$1,831 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The recorded overnight minimum of 17°C in London on May 25 aligned precisely with official Met Office observations from central stations, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome to 100% while rendering all other thresholds negligible. Mild southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover overnight, and the urban heat island effect prevented temperatures from dropping further despite typical May variability. Traders incorporated the latest model guidance and real-time station data showing no sub-17°C readings. Minor resolution risk remains only if final verified reports from alternate sites or post-processing adjustments revise the figure, though historical consistency in London’s temperature network makes such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$20,166End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The recorded overnight minimum of 17°C in London on May 25 aligned precisely with official Met Office observations from central stations, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome to 100% while rendering all other thresholds negligible. Mild southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover overnight, and the urban heat island effect prevented temperatures from dropping further despite typical May variability. Traders incorporated the latest model guidance and real-time station data showing no sub-17°C readings. Minor resolution risk remains only if final verified reports from alternate sites or post-processing adjustments revise the figure, though historical consistency in London’s temperature network makes such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,166End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The recorded overnight minimum of 17°C in London on May 25 aligned precisely with official Met Office observations from central stations, driving the market-implied probability for that exact outcome to 100% while rendering all other thresholds negligible. Mild southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover overnight, and the urban heat island effect prevented temperatures from dropping further despite typical May variability. Traders incorporated the latest model guidance and real-time station data showing no sub-17°C readings. Minor resolution risk remains only if final verified reports from alternate sites or post-processing adjustments revise the figure, though historical consistency in London’s temperature network makes such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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