Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 9?
Lowest temperature in London on May 9?
9°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$55,056 Vol.
$55,056 Vol.
May 9, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
Yes
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
9°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$55,056 Vol.
$55,056 Vol.
May 9, 2026
4°C or below
$9,880 Vol.
No
5°C
$5,016 Vol.
No
6°C
$1,991 Vol.
No
7°C
$1,442 Vol.
No
8°C
$2,854 Vol.
No
9°C
$19,756 Vol.
Yes
10°C
$6,125 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,980 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,216 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,859 Vol.
No
14°C or higher
$1,936 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$55,056End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$55,056End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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