Current forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in London on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and dew points around 14–15°C that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Mild advection from the Atlantic and moderate winds (15–17 mph) promote mixing that prevents sharper drops, while high pressure building from the west keeps conditions stable. These factors explain the tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes, with minor model differences in exact cloud thickness or wind gusts creating the spread between leading probabilities; lower values remain unlikely absent an unexpected clear slot or northerly shift. Updated guidance on the 18th will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 19?
Lowest temperature in London on September 19?
17°C 43%
18°C 31%
16°C 25%
14°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
12°C or below
3%
13°C
3%
14°C
6%
15°C
6%
16°C
25%
17°C
43%
18°C
31%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
17°C 43%
18°C 31%
16°C 25%
14°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
3%
14°C
$0 Vol.
6%
15°C
$110 Vol.
6%
16°C
$1,498 Vol.
25%
17°C
$981 Vol.
43%
18°C
$525 Vol.
31%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in London on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and dew points around 14–15°C that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Mild advection from the Atlantic and moderate winds (15–17 mph) promote mixing that prevents sharper drops, while high pressure building from the west keeps conditions stable. These factors explain the tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes, with minor model differences in exact cloud thickness or wind gusts creating the spread between leading probabilities; lower values remain unlikely absent an unexpected clear slot or northerly shift. Updated guidance on the 18th will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,114End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in London on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and dew points around 14–15°C that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Mild advection from the Atlantic and moderate winds (15–17 mph) promote mixing that prevents sharper drops, while high pressure building from the west keeps conditions stable. These factors explain the tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes, with minor model differences in exact cloud thickness or wind gusts creating the spread between leading probabilities; lower values remain unlikely absent an unexpected clear slot or northerly shift. Updated guidance on the 18th will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,114End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature near 16–17°C in London on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and dew points around 14–15°C that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Mild advection from the Atlantic and moderate winds (15–17 mph) promote mixing that prevents sharper drops, while high pressure building from the west keeps conditions stable. These factors explain the tight clustering around 16–18°C outcomes, with minor model differences in exact cloud thickness or wind gusts creating the spread between leading probabilities; lower values remain unlikely absent an unexpected clear slot or northerly shift. Updated guidance on the 18th will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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