Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate minimum temperatures near 23°C on September 25 amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall associated with lingering monsoon activity. These conditions typically suppress overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows closer to seasonal averages of 24–26°C rather than allowing sharper drops. Historical September minima in the region rarely fall below 22°C without strong dry spells or northerly winds, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 27°C or higher. Updated model runs and IMD block-level outlooks through September 24–26 will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing, key variables that could shift outcomes toward the 22–24°C range if heavier rains materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Lucknow on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on September 25?
17°C or below 100%
27°C or higher 98%
22°C 44%
23°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
17°C or below
100%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
23%
23°C
25%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C
39%
27°C or higher
98%
17°C or below 100%
27°C or higher 98%
22°C 44%
23°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$7 Vol.
23%
23°C
$10 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate minimum temperatures near 23°C on September 25 amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall associated with lingering monsoon activity. These conditions typically suppress overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows closer to seasonal averages of 24–26°C rather than allowing sharper drops. Historical September minima in the region rarely fall below 22°C without strong dry spells or northerly winds, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 27°C or higher. Updated model runs and IMD block-level outlooks through September 24–26 will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing, key variables that could shift outcomes toward the 22–24°C range if heavier rains materialize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$18End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate minimum temperatures near 23°C on September 25 amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall associated with lingering monsoon activity. These conditions typically suppress overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows closer to seasonal averages of 24–26°C rather than allowing sharper drops. Historical September minima in the region rarely fall below 22°C without strong dry spells or northerly winds, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 27°C or higher. Updated model runs and IMD block-level outlooks through September 24–26 will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing, key variables that could shift outcomes toward the 22–24°C range if heavier rains materialize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow indicate minimum temperatures near 23°C on September 25 amid widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall associated with lingering monsoon activity. These conditions typically suppress overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows closer to seasonal averages of 24–26°C rather than allowing sharper drops. Historical September minima in the region rarely fall below 22°C without strong dry spells or northerly winds, supporting the market's elevated implied probability for 27°C or higher. Updated model runs and IMD block-level outlooks through September 24–26 will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing, key variables that could shift outcomes toward the 22–24°C range if heavier rains materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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