Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are promoting strong nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET-aligned models showing minimum temperatures around 15–18 °C for September 23. This setup aligns with climatological norms for late September, where average lows hover near 14 °C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. Recent model runs indicate limited variability in steering patterns, keeping the risk of warmer advection low, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact overnight minimum. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 13 °C or below, appears driven by these cooling dynamics and historical precedent for occasional dips below seasonal averages when high pressure persists. Updated NHC-style regional guidance and overnight observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
13°C or below 44%
14°C 22%
15°C 22%
16°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
44%
14°C
22%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
21%
18°C
20%
19°C
20%
20°C
6%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
13°C or below 44%
14°C 22%
15°C 22%
16°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$141 Vol.
6%
21°C
$100 Vol.
1%
22°C
$100 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are promoting strong nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET-aligned models showing minimum temperatures around 15–18 °C for September 23. This setup aligns with climatological norms for late September, where average lows hover near 14 °C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. Recent model runs indicate limited variability in steering patterns, keeping the risk of warmer advection low, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact overnight minimum. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 13 °C or below, appears driven by these cooling dynamics and historical precedent for occasional dips below seasonal averages when high pressure persists. Updated NHC-style regional guidance and overnight observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$341End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are promoting strong nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET-aligned models showing minimum temperatures around 15–18 °C for September 23. This setup aligns with climatological norms for late September, where average lows hover near 14 °C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. Recent model runs indicate limited variability in steering patterns, keeping the risk of warmer advection low, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact overnight minimum. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 13 °C or below, appears driven by these cooling dynamics and historical precedent for occasional dips below seasonal averages when high pressure persists. Updated NHC-style regional guidance and overnight observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$341End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and light northeasterly winds under high pressure are promoting strong nocturnal radiative cooling over Madrid, with official forecasts from sources like AEMET-aligned models showing minimum temperatures around 15–18 °C for September 23. This setup aligns with climatological norms for late September, where average lows hover near 14 °C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover that limits downward longwave radiation. Recent model runs indicate limited variability in steering patterns, keeping the risk of warmer advection low, though slight differences in boundary-layer moisture could nudge the exact overnight minimum. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 13 °C or below, appears driven by these cooling dynamics and historical precedent for occasional dips below seasonal averages when high pressure persists. Updated NHC-style regional guidance and overnight observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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