Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Manila on September 15 likely between 24–26°C, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with scattered showers, high humidity near 90% overnight, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover from tropical moisture reduces the diurnal range compared to drier periods, while sea surface temperatures around 29°C maintain elevated baseline readings. Model consensus supports 25–26°C as the most probable overnight low, though small variations in timing of any showers or wind shifts could push readings slightly higher or lower. Updated runs from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and international ensembles will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 15?
31°C or higher 51%
21°C or below 46%
26°C 30%
27°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
46%
22°C
13%
23°C
15%
24°C
22%
25°C
25%
26°C
30%
27°C
30%
28°C
22%
29°C
16%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
51%
31°C or higher 51%
21°C or below 46%
26°C 30%
27°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
46%
22°C
$10 Vol.
13%
23°C
$31 Vol.
15%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
30%
27°C
$0 Vol.
30%
28°C
$0 Vol.
22%
29°C
$10 Vol.
16%
30°C
$10 Vol.
17%
31°C or higher
$10 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Manila on September 15 likely between 24–26°C, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with scattered showers, high humidity near 90% overnight, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover from tropical moisture reduces the diurnal range compared to drier periods, while sea surface temperatures around 29°C maintain elevated baseline readings. Model consensus supports 25–26°C as the most probable overnight low, though small variations in timing of any showers or wind shifts could push readings slightly higher or lower. Updated runs from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and international ensembles will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$81End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Manila on September 15 likely between 24–26°C, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with scattered showers, high humidity near 90% overnight, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover from tropical moisture reduces the diurnal range compared to drier periods, while sea surface temperatures around 29°C maintain elevated baseline readings. Model consensus supports 25–26°C as the most probable overnight low, though small variations in timing of any showers or wind shifts could push readings slightly higher or lower. Updated runs from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and international ensembles will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Manila on September 15 likely between 24–26°C, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with scattered showers, high humidity near 90% overnight, and light variable winds that limit radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover from tropical moisture reduces the diurnal range compared to drier periods, while sea surface temperatures around 29°C maintain elevated baseline readings. Model consensus supports 25–26°C as the most probable overnight low, though small variations in timing of any showers or wind shifts could push readings slightly higher or lower. Updated runs from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration and international ensembles will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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