Current forecast models from PAGASA and global systems like GFS point to Manila nighttime lows near 24–26°C on September 16 amid scattered thunderstorms and limited southwest monsoon influence, creating balanced trader sentiment with near-even implied probabilities around 49% for 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher. High humidity near 90% combined with extensive cloud cover reduces radiative cooling overnight, while variable rainfall timing and intensity could either suppress temperatures through evaporative effects or allow brief clearer intervals that raise minima. Typical September conditions feature lows averaging 24–26°C with frequent convective activity, and model consensus shows modest spread in exact overnight readings depending on storm placement. PAGASA and updated NWP runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 16?
20°C or below 84%
30°C or higher 84%
27°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
84%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
22%
25°C
24%
26°C
23%
27°C
40%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C or higher
84%
20°C or below 84%
30°C or higher 84%
27°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
84%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
23%
27°C
$0 Vol.
40%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from PAGASA and global systems like GFS point to Manila nighttime lows near 24–26°C on September 16 amid scattered thunderstorms and limited southwest monsoon influence, creating balanced trader sentiment with near-even implied probabilities around 49% for 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher. High humidity near 90% combined with extensive cloud cover reduces radiative cooling overnight, while variable rainfall timing and intensity could either suppress temperatures through evaporative effects or allow brief clearer intervals that raise minima. Typical September conditions feature lows averaging 24–26°C with frequent convective activity, and model consensus shows modest spread in exact overnight readings depending on storm placement. PAGASA and updated NWP runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from PAGASA and global systems like GFS point to Manila nighttime lows near 24–26°C on September 16 amid scattered thunderstorms and limited southwest monsoon influence, creating balanced trader sentiment with near-even implied probabilities around 49% for 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher. High humidity near 90% combined with extensive cloud cover reduces radiative cooling overnight, while variable rainfall timing and intensity could either suppress temperatures through evaporative effects or allow brief clearer intervals that raise minima. Typical September conditions feature lows averaging 24–26°C with frequent convective activity, and model consensus shows modest spread in exact overnight readings depending on storm placement. PAGASA and updated NWP runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from PAGASA and global systems like GFS point to Manila nighttime lows near 24–26°C on September 16 amid scattered thunderstorms and limited southwest monsoon influence, creating balanced trader sentiment with near-even implied probabilities around 49% for 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher. High humidity near 90% combined with extensive cloud cover reduces radiative cooling overnight, while variable rainfall timing and intensity could either suppress temperatures through evaporative effects or allow brief clearer intervals that raise minima. Typical September conditions feature lows averaging 24–26°C with frequent convective activity, and model consensus shows modest spread in exact overnight readings depending on storm placement. PAGASA and updated NWP runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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