Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 13–14°C for Mexico City’s August 26 minimum because current ensemble forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on overnight lows near the August climatological average of 13.3°C, with limited spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered convective rain during the wet season. These conditions moderate radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation while the urban heat island effect prevents deeper drops below 12°C. Traders assign lower weight to 19°C+ or sub-10°C outcomes given the narrow historical range (rarely outside 11–15°C) and stable steering patterns that limit clear-sky extremes overnight. Updated model runs and local station observations from the Mexico City basin ahead of the overnight minimum will refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
9°C or below 44%
10°C 43%
13°C 34%
14°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
44%
10°C
43%
11°C
26%
12°C
23%
13°C
34%
14°C
33%
15°C
24%
16°C
22%
17°C
11%
18°C
5%
19°C or higher
23%
9°C or below 44%
10°C 43%
13°C 34%
14°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
44%
10°C
$5 Vol.
43%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
33%
15°C
$0 Vol.
24%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$130 Vol.
11%
18°C
$5 Vol.
5%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 13–14°C for Mexico City’s August 26 minimum because current ensemble forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on overnight lows near the August climatological average of 13.3°C, with limited spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered convective rain during the wet season. These conditions moderate radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation while the urban heat island effect prevents deeper drops below 12°C. Traders assign lower weight to 19°C+ or sub-10°C outcomes given the narrow historical range (rarely outside 11–15°C) and stable steering patterns that limit clear-sky extremes overnight. Updated model runs and local station observations from the Mexico City basin ahead of the overnight minimum will refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$150End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 13–14°C for Mexico City’s August 26 minimum because current ensemble forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on overnight lows near the August climatological average of 13.3°C, with limited spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered convective rain during the wet season. These conditions moderate radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation while the urban heat island effect prevents deeper drops below 12°C. Traders assign lower weight to 19°C+ or sub-10°C outcomes given the narrow historical range (rarely outside 11–15°C) and stable steering patterns that limit clear-sky extremes overnight. Updated model runs and local station observations from the Mexico City basin ahead of the overnight minimum will refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$150End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 13–14°C for Mexico City’s August 26 minimum because current ensemble forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on overnight lows near the August climatological average of 13.3°C, with limited spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered convective rain during the wet season. These conditions moderate radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation while the urban heat island effect prevents deeper drops below 12°C. Traders assign lower weight to 19°C+ or sub-10°C outcomes given the narrow historical range (rarely outside 11–15°C) and stable steering patterns that limit clear-sky extremes overnight. Updated model runs and local station observations from the Mexico City basin ahead of the overnight minimum will refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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