Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's overnight low on September 1 will likely fall in the 14–17 °C range under southerly flow, with highs near 23–25 °C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling from cloud cover and humidity near 70–80 %. This supports the near-even market split between the 19 °C-or-higher and 9 °C-or-below buckets, as traders weigh the narrow window for deviation. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and intensity of any scattered showers or thunderstorms, which can suppress minimum temperatures by 1–3 °C through enhanced mixing or evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that allow greater heat loss. Historical September 1 lows average 10.7 °C, but the current southerly air mass has shifted probabilities upward relative to climatology, leaving the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 1?
19°C or higher 96%
9°C or below 94%
11°C 50%
12°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
94%
10°C
49%
11°C
50%
12°C
50%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
50%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
96%
19°C or higher 96%
9°C or below 94%
11°C 50%
12°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$0 Vol.
50%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's overnight low on September 1 will likely fall in the 14–17 °C range under southerly flow, with highs near 23–25 °C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling from cloud cover and humidity near 70–80 %. This supports the near-even market split between the 19 °C-or-higher and 9 °C-or-below buckets, as traders weigh the narrow window for deviation. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and intensity of any scattered showers or thunderstorms, which can suppress minimum temperatures by 1–3 °C through enhanced mixing or evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that allow greater heat loss. Historical September 1 lows average 10.7 °C, but the current southerly air mass has shifted probabilities upward relative to climatology, leaving the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's overnight low on September 1 will likely fall in the 14–17 °C range under southerly flow, with highs near 23–25 °C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling from cloud cover and humidity near 70–80 %. This supports the near-even market split between the 19 °C-or-higher and 9 °C-or-below buckets, as traders weigh the narrow window for deviation. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and intensity of any scattered showers or thunderstorms, which can suppress minimum temperatures by 1–3 °C through enhanced mixing or evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that allow greater heat loss. Historical September 1 lows average 10.7 °C, but the current southerly air mass has shifted probabilities upward relative to climatology, leaving the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's overnight low on September 1 will likely fall in the 14–17 °C range under southerly flow, with highs near 23–25 °C and limited nocturnal radiative cooling from cloud cover and humidity near 70–80 %. This supports the near-even market split between the 19 °C-or-higher and 9 °C-or-below buckets, as traders weigh the narrow window for deviation. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and intensity of any scattered showers or thunderstorms, which can suppress minimum temperatures by 1–3 °C through enhanced mixing or evaporative cooling, versus clearer intervals that allow greater heat loss. Historical September 1 lows average 10.7 °C, but the current southerly air mass has shifted probabilities upward relative to climatology, leaving the exact minimum sensitive to small forecast adjustments in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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