**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources including the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 9–11 °C for Munich on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds of 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10 °C.** This setup produces modest radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops, aligning with the market’s closely bunched implied probabilities for 9 °C (27 %), 10 °C (26.5 %), and nearby bins. Clearer breaks or slightly lower dew points could allow the temperature to reach the 5 °C or below outcome (currently 27.5 % implied), consistent with historical September 11 lows as cold as 1.5 °C under optimal cooling conditions. High uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing keeps the distribution broad, with fresh model runs and observational updates expected to narrow the range before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 11?
15°C or higher 52%
9°C 29%
10°C 27%
5°C or below 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
5°C or below
26%
6°C
10%
7°C
19%
8°C
25%
9°C
29%
10°C
27%
11°C
17%
12°C
8%
13°C
14%
14°C
14%
15°C or higher
52%
15°C or higher 52%
9°C 29%
10°C 27%
5°C or below 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
5°C or below
$13 Vol.
26%
6°C
$13 Vol.
10%
7°C
$0 Vol.
19%
8°C
$0 Vol.
25%
9°C
$0 Vol.
29%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
17%
12°C
$571 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources including the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 9–11 °C for Munich on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds of 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10 °C.**
This setup produces modest radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops, aligning with the market’s closely bunched implied probabilities for 9 °C (27 %), 10 °C (26.5 %), and nearby bins. Clearer breaks or slightly lower dew points could allow the temperature to reach the 5 °C or below outcome (currently 27.5 % implied), consistent with historical September 11 lows as cold as 1.5 °C under optimal cooling conditions. High uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing keeps the distribution broad, with fresh model runs and observational updates expected to narrow the range before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$596End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources including the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 9–11 °C for Munich on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds of 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10 °C.**
This setup produces modest radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops, aligning with the market’s closely bunched implied probabilities for 9 °C (27 %), 10 °C (26.5 %), and nearby bins. Clearer breaks or slightly lower dew points could allow the temperature to reach the 5 °C or below outcome (currently 27.5 % implied), consistent with historical September 11 lows as cold as 1.5 °C under optimal cooling conditions. High uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing keeps the distribution broad, with fresh model runs and observational updates expected to narrow the range before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$596End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources including the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 9–11 °C for Munich on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds of 2–4 m/s, and dew points around 8–10 °C.** This setup produces modest radiative cooling while limiting extreme drops, aligning with the market’s closely bunched implied probabilities for 9 °C (27 %), 10 °C (26.5 %), and nearby bins. Clearer breaks or slightly lower dew points could allow the temperature to reach the 5 °C or below outcome (currently 27.5 % implied), consistent with historical September 11 lows as cold as 1.5 °C under optimal cooling conditions. High uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing keeps the distribution broad, with fresh model runs and observational updates expected to narrow the range before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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