Recent short-term forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and world-weather.info indicate an overnight low near 72°F for New York City on August 18 under sunny, stable conditions driven by a strong Atlantic ridge and southerly flow. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 74-75°F bin (41.5% implied probability) and 72-73°F range (27.5%), as typical late-summer radiational cooling is moderated by humidity and above-average monthly temperatures projected by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Model consensus shows limited overnight drop potential without significant cloud cover or frontal passage, while historical August Central Park minima average around 67°F but trend warmer this year. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and evening model runs could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
74-75°F 42%
72-73°F 28%
76-77°F 15%
70-71°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
42%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
2%
82°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 42%
72-73°F 28%
76-77°F 15%
70-71°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$55 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$65 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$36 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$25 Vol.
28%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
42%
76-77°F
$265 Vol.
15%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$55 Vol.
2%
82°F or higher
$60 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and world-weather.info indicate an overnight low near 72°F for New York City on August 18 under sunny, stable conditions driven by a strong Atlantic ridge and southerly flow. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 74-75°F bin (41.5% implied probability) and 72-73°F range (27.5%), as typical late-summer radiational cooling is moderated by humidity and above-average monthly temperatures projected by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Model consensus shows limited overnight drop potential without significant cloud cover or frontal passage, while historical August Central Park minima average around 67°F but trend warmer this year. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and evening model runs could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$631End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and world-weather.info indicate an overnight low near 72°F for New York City on August 18 under sunny, stable conditions driven by a strong Atlantic ridge and southerly flow. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 74-75°F bin (41.5% implied probability) and 72-73°F range (27.5%), as typical late-summer radiational cooling is moderated by humidity and above-average monthly temperatures projected by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Model consensus shows limited overnight drop potential without significant cloud cover or frontal passage, while historical August Central Park minima average around 67°F but trend warmer this year. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and evening model runs could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$631End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and world-weather.info indicate an overnight low near 72°F for New York City on August 18 under sunny, stable conditions driven by a strong Atlantic ridge and southerly flow. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 74-75°F bin (41.5% implied probability) and 72-73°F range (27.5%), as typical late-summer radiational cooling is moderated by humidity and above-average monthly temperatures projected by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Model consensus shows limited overnight drop potential without significant cloud cover or frontal passage, while historical August Central Park minima average around 67°F but trend warmer this year. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and evening model runs could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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