Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models point to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 25 near 24–25°C, driven by southerly flow, elevated humidity near 70–80%, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under typical late-September subtropical conditions. These factors reduce the usual diurnal temperature swing compared with clearer, drier nights earlier in the month. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 24–25°C because ensemble runs show modest spread in minimum readings, with slight variations in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage able to shift the exact low by 1°C. Historical September minima for the city average around 20–22°C, making the current pattern warmer than seasonal norms due to persistent warm advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 25?
24°C 37%
25°C 29%
29°C or higher 26%
26°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
19°C or below
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
21%
22°C
23%
23°C
23%
24°C
37%
25°C
29%
26°C
25%
27°C
23%
28°C
23%
29°C or higher
26%
24°C 37%
25°C 29%
29°C or higher 26%
26°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
23%
23°C
$3 Vol.
23%
24°C
$227 Vol.
37%
25°C
$0 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
25%
27°C
$0 Vol.
23%
28°C
$0 Vol.
23%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models point to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 25 near 24–25°C, driven by southerly flow, elevated humidity near 70–80%, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under typical late-September subtropical conditions. These factors reduce the usual diurnal temperature swing compared with clearer, drier nights earlier in the month. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 24–25°C because ensemble runs show modest spread in minimum readings, with slight variations in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage able to shift the exact low by 1°C. Historical September minima for the city average around 20–22°C, making the current pattern warmer than seasonal norms due to persistent warm advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$230End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models point to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 25 near 24–25°C, driven by southerly flow, elevated humidity near 70–80%, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under typical late-September subtropical conditions. These factors reduce the usual diurnal temperature swing compared with clearer, drier nights earlier in the month. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 24–25°C because ensemble runs show modest spread in minimum readings, with slight variations in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage able to shift the exact low by 1°C. Historical September minima for the city average around 20–22°C, making the current pattern warmer than seasonal norms due to persistent warm advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$230End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models point to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 25 near 24–25°C, driven by southerly flow, elevated humidity near 70–80%, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under typical late-September subtropical conditions. These factors reduce the usual diurnal temperature swing compared with clearer, drier nights earlier in the month. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 24–25°C because ensemble runs show modest spread in minimum readings, with slight variations in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage able to shift the exact low by 1°C. Historical September minima for the city average around 20–22°C, making the current pattern warmer than seasonal norms due to persistent warm advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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